Global commodity markets displayed mixed performance on November 28, 2025, with precious metals finding support from dovish Federal Reserve expectations while base metals continued to face headwinds from weak economic data, according to ICICI Securities' daily commodities outlook. Precious metals showed divergent trends as MCX Gold prices declined 0.32% to close at 125,504 rupees per 10 grams, while silver gained more than 0.5%. Comex Gold rose 0.60% to 4,202 dollars per troy ounce, while Comex Silver surged 3.83% to 52.92 dollars per troy ounce.
ICICI Securities analysts noted that bullion prices steadied as investors assessed the likelihood of a U.S. interest rate cut in December, with traders now pricing almost 87% chance of a rate cut according to CME FedWatch tool, up from 83% a day earlier and 39% a week ago. The U.S. dollar weakened, losing marginally by 0.03% as dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and softer-than-expected economic data increased bets on a December rate cut. The prospect of White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett becoming the next Federal Reserve chair continued to weigh on the currency.
U.S. treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year yield slipping to 3.992% and the 2-year yield rising to 3.477%. ICICI Securities expects spot gold to trade with positive bias and rise towards the $4,210 level on weak dollar and softening of U.S. treasury yields, with MCX Gold February contract expected to rise towards 128,800 rupees as long as it stays above 126,500 rupees. Base metals faced considerable selling pressure.
LME Copper declined 0.32% to 10,940 dollars per tonne, while MCX Copper gained marginally 0.12% to 1,009.8 rupees per kilogram. LME Aluminium fell 1.14% to 2,829 dollars per tonne and LME Zinc contracted 1.36% to 3,015 dollars per tonne. ICICI Securities attributed copper weakness to concerns over weak demand from China and rising inventories at LME registered warehouses, with copper output growth forecasted to slow to just 0.9% in 2026 according to the International Copper Study Group.
The firm noted that disappointing economic data from both the U.S. and China raised concerns over economic health and demand outlook, while renewed worries about China's property sector added to selling pressure, particularly following developer Vanke's decision to seek delay of a bond repayment. Energy markets moved higher despite underlying weakness. WTI Crude Oil rose 1.21% to 58.65 dollars per barrel, and MCX Crude Oil gained 1.73% to 5,284 rupees per barrel.
ICICI Securities attributed the strength to rising risk appetite in global markets and market anticipation of details on peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. However, the firm expects crude oil to trade with negative bias and dip towards the $58 level on rising crude oil inventories, prospects of oversupply and signs of positive progress in peace talks. The potential lifting of sanctions on Russian crude exports in case of a peace deal could add further supply, though sharp downside may be cushioned by weak dollar sentiment.
Natural gas showed strength, with NYMEX Natural Gas gaining 3.03% to 4.56 dollars per MMBtu. MCX Natural Gas rose 1.12% to 380.4 rupees per MMBtu. ICICI Securities expects MCX Natural Gas December contract to rise towards 420 rupees as long as it stays above 400 rupees.
LME warehouse stocks showed varied movements during the period. Copper stocks declined by 75 tonnes to 156,500 tonnes with a 0.05% decrease, while Aluminium stocks fell by 2,000 tonnes to 541,725 tonnes representing a 0.37% decline. Zinc stocks increased by 1,925 tonnes to 49,925 tonnes, a 4.01% rise, and Lead stocks rose by 400 tonnes to 264,975 tonnes.
On the currency front, the U.S. Dollar Index weakened 0.07% to 99.60. The Euro strengthened 0.22% against the dollar to 1.1595, while the British Pound gained 0.57% to 1.3241 against the dollar.
The Indian Rupee weakened marginally by 0.06% to 89.27 against the U.S. dollar. ICICI Securities' technical recommendations included a December Copper sell recommendation with entry at 1,022-1,023 rupees per kilogram targeting 1,013 with a stop loss at 1,028 for intraday trading. The firm also noted a follow-up buy recommendation for Copper at 1,016.50-1,017 rupees targeting 1,025 with a stop loss at 1,012.
Source: ICICI Securities Retail Equity Research, Bloomberg, Reuters
Source: icicidirect.com