Shanghai Futures Exchange tin SN2610 contracts experienced a sharp decline on October 9-10, 2026, falling 4.50% overnight to break below the 390,000 yuan per metric ton level, marking a three-month low. The daytime session on October 9 closed at 391,410 yuan/mt, down 17,180 yuan or 4.23% from the previous settlement of 408,590 yuan/mt, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) reporting. London Metal Exchange tin, which had shown relative strength among base metals, closed at $53,000/mt on October 9, up $1,553 or 3.02% from the prior close.
The intraday range traded between $51,450 and $53,385/mt, with LME Cash Bid/Offer quoted at 52,850/52,900 and 15-month Bid/Offer at 53,260/53,310, maintaining a backwardation structure, according to SMM data. The decline was primarily driven by macroeconomic concerns and weakness in the semiconductor sector. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped over 3% on October 9, weighing on tin's computing-power metal demand growth expectations.
Contributing to market sentiment was the revelation that OpenAI's annualized revenue of approximately $50 billion fell considerably short of market expectations, dampening the artificial intelligence solder narrative that had supported tin prices. Inventory dynamics remained tight. LME tin inventory stood at 4,310 mt as of October 10, down 15 mt or 0.35% week-over-week, representing a five-year low.
SHFE tin warrants totaled 4,326 mt on October 8, up 168 mt week-over-week but hovering at low levels. SMM China tin ingot social inventory showed a mild buildup of 117 mt in the first week following the National Day holiday. On the supply side, Myanmar's Wa State tin production resumptions remained below expectations, with the rainy season and explosives controls continuing to disrupt tin concentrate imports.
Indonesia's PT Timah reported first-half 2026 tin-in-concentrate production of 12,232 mt and refined tin production of 10,865 mt. The Democratic Republic of Congo's Alphamin Resources reported third-quarter 2026 tin-in-concentrate production of 5,030 mt, achieving a Q3 average selling price of $54,374/mt with an all-in sustaining cost of $20,642/mt. The company has increased rainy-season transport capacity and fuel reserves to mitigate supply chain disruptions.
Peru's Minsur reported second-quarter 2026 San Rafael tin-in-concentrate production of 7,359 mt plus 2,152 mt in B2 tailings, totaling 9,511 mt. However, Peru's government declared a 60-day state of emergency in 707 districts across 17 regions on October 11 due to drought, which may impact future production. Smelting activity was constrained by maintenance.
Tin Industry Company's tin branch began routine maintenance shutdowns on September 30 expected to last no more than 45 days. Yunnan 40% tin concentrate treatment charges remained steady at 18,000 yuan/mt, and September refined tin production showed only a modest month-over-month rebound with post-holiday supply-side maintenance impacts continuing. On the demand front, downstream buyers engaged in phased bargain restocking after the post-holiday sharp price decline, though September peak season demand underperformed market expectations.
Federal Reserve policy considerations added to macro uncertainty. The US Federal Reserve's September FOMC minutes released on October 7 showed officials were divided on the rationale for further rate hikes. The federal funds rate remained at 3.75-4.00%, with EFFR at 3.88% on October 8.
The 10-year US Treasury yield was 5.22% and the 30-year yield at 5.60% on October 8. CME FedWatch data from October 9 indicated an 82.3% probability the Fed would hold rates unchanged in October, with 17.7% probability of a 25 basis point hike; for December, the probability of holding steady was 18.7% with a cumulative 25 basis point hike probability of 67.6%. Brent crude oil rebounded to $103.9 per barrel on October 9, with expectations fluctuating around Hormuz shipping developments in the Middle East.
Source: Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) Tin Morning Meeting Summary, published October 12, 2026. Data sources include SHFE, LME, company announcements from PT Timah, Alphamin Resources, and Minsur, and US Federal Reserve H.15 data.
Source: news.metal.com