Global antimony supply faces structural challenges rooted in decades of production concentration, with China controlling approximately 60% of mine production while dominating the refining sector that processes ore into usable materials. This concentration has been compounded by declining global mine production, which fell to approximately 110,000 tonnes in 2025 from around 153,000 tonnes five years earlier, according to analysis presented by Tyler Jefferson at Mining.com.au. Antimony is primarily produced as a byproduct of mining for gold, silver, lead, or copper, with stibnite being the principal antimony-bearing ore mineral.
This production structure means antimony output volumes depend partly on the economics of whatever metal is being mined primarily, creating inherent supply volatility beyond direct market factors. China's structural leverage extends beyond its mine production share. The country serves as the world's dominant processor and refiner of antimony products, meaning even antimony mined in other countries often ends up being processed in China before reaching end users.
China operates the world's largest antimony operation, the Xikuangshan mine in Hunan Province, which has operated continuously for over a century. Chinese domestic reserves total 830,000 tonnes, the largest national reserve base globally. Outside China, Russia and Tajikistan together account for most non-Chinese supply.
Russia produced approximately 32,000 tonnes in 2025, while Tajikistan's output flows primarily through joint ventures with Chinese partners. Bolivia, Myanmar, Turkey, Australia, and several smaller producers account for the remainder. Combined, China, Russia, and Tajikistan control over 90% of global mine production.
Russia faces Western sanctions, and Tajikistan's production is primarily channeled to China, leaving effective Western supply heavily dependent on Chinese export decisions. The refining bottleneck represents a critical but often overlooked challenge in supply diversification. Antimony ore concentrate requires processing into refined products including antimony trioxide, antimony metal, or antimony trisulfide before reaching end users.
Most specialized smelting and refining facilities are located in China. Outside China and Russia, meaningful processing capacity is severely limited. Oman Strategic and Precious Metals Processing (SPMP) operates a smelter designed for 40,000 tonnes annually, but suspended operations in 2024 due to inadequate ore supply.
Analysis indicates that even if every proposed non-Chinese smelter project reaches completion by 2030, total capacity outside China and Russia would reach only approximately 68,000 tonnes per year. This compares with projected non-Chinese demand of approximately 93,000 tonnes annually, creating a structural processing deficit of around 27%. Two significant Western projects are advancing.
Larvotto Resources' Hillgrove mine in New South Wales commenced production in August 2026, becoming the most substantial new Western antimony source amid the current supply crisis. Fully funded through a US$105 million senior secured bond issue and US$70 million equity raising, Hillgrove is Australia's largest antimony deposit and the eighth largest globally. At full production, the operation is expected to produce approximately 4,900 tonnes of antimony annually alongside around 45,000 ounces of gold over an initial eight-year mine life.
Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold Project in central Idaho represents the US's most advanced domestic antimony development. The project received final federal approvals in 2025 and entered early works construction. Since 2022, Perpetua has received over US$87 million in US Government funding, including more than US$59 million under the Defense Production Act Title III and Department of Defense awards.
In May 2026, Perpetua secured a US$2.9 billion loan from the US Export-Import Bank, described as the largest loan under EXIM's Make More in America initiative and its fourth-largest loan on record. At full production, Stibnite is expected to supply approximately 35% of US antimony demand within its first six years. Perpetua also opened a pilot processing plant in July 2026, operated with the Idaho National Laboratory and US Army, to demonstrate military-grade antimony trisulfide production.
Additional projects are advancing across Australia, Canada, and Europe. Southern Cross Gold's Sunday Creek Project in Victoria is targeting a maiden resource estimate. Several junior exploration companies are advancing antimony-bearing properties in Canada and the US.
The EU has funded supply chain diversification programs under its Critical Raw Materials Act and Horizon Europe research framework. Antimony prices surged dramatically following China's August 2024 export controls, reaching approximately US$57,000 to US$63,000 per tonne by mid-2025, roughly 10 times the five-year average. Prices have since declined as some licensed Chinese supply resumed under a whitelist system established for 2026 and 2027.
The price correction reflects the partial and conditional resumption of Chinese exports under a licensing regime China controls and can tighten again. The US-China trade truce suspended export restrictions on critical materials to the US and is due to expire in November 2026, when restrictions can be reinstated. Despite progress at Hillgrove and Stibnite, all projects currently under development outside China fall well short of closing the structural supply gap by 2030 even on optimistic assumptions about project timelines and capital availability.
Global mine production has declined for five years, the world's largest producer has demonstrated willingness to use export controls as leverage, refining capacity outside China remains insufficient, and lead times for developing new capacity extend years into the future. Antimony's supply problem represents a case study in structural concentration risk that took decades to develop and will require years to materially change.
Source: mining.com.au