A comprehensive study published in Sustainability journal on September 21, 2026, reveals significant geographic concentration in the production of critical minerals across Belt and Road Initiative countries, with particularly acute vulnerabilities in nickel, cobalt, and lithium markets. Researchers from the University of Science and Technology Beijing examined production concentration of ten major minerals—iron ore, copper, gold, nickel, cobalt, lithium, bauxite, potash, tin, and phosphate rock—across BRI countries using 2023 mine production data from the U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025.
The study employed the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) and concentration ratios (CR4 and CR8) to measure production structures within metallogenic belts. The findings identified three distinct concentration typologies. Nickel, cobalt, and lithium exhibited the strongest concentration profiles, with HHI values of 0.522 to 0.666 and CR4 values of 0.957 to 1.000.
Within the BRI sample, Indonesia accounted for 73.3 percent of nickel production, the Democratic Republic of the Congo dominated cobalt at 81.0 percent, and China and Zimbabwe together controlled lithium output. These highly concentrated structures create exposure to single-country supply disruptions and policy changes. Iron ore, copper, gold, and potash formed a second group with lower relative concentration, showing HHI values between 0.151 and 0.276 and CR4 values ranging from 0.653 to 0.934.
Although these minerals had broader producer bases, they remained vulnerable to simultaneous shocks among leading suppliers. Gold showed the lowest concentration in the study with HHI of 0.151 and CR4 of 0.653. Bauxite, tin, and phosphate rock occupied an intermediate position requiring close monitoring of policy, infrastructure, and processing constraints.
The research acknowledged that production concentration represents only one dimension of supply risk. The study emphasized that downstream processing, transport corridors, and infrastructure can be more concentrated than extraction itself. Processing concentration, ownership structures, logistics reliability, and environmental and social governance factors must be evaluated separately to assess total supply chain vulnerability.
The authors noted that China processes more than 70 percent of global lithium and cobalt, demonstrating how processing concentration can exceed production concentration. Indonesia's nickel expansion has raised environmental concerns including forest loss, while cobalt production in the DRC faces persistent ESG challenges. These factors extend supply vulnerability beyond country-level production shares.
The study identified three policy implications. Typology 1 minerals (nickel, cobalt, lithium) require priority focus on dominant producer exposure and enforceable ESG safeguards. Typology 2 minerals (iron ore, copper, gold, potash) demand separate assessment of substitution options and transport route redundancy.
Typology 3 minerals (bauxite, tin, phosphate rock) require ongoing monitoring of exporter policies, infrastructure conditions, and downstream processing developments. Future research directions include longitudinal analysis of concentration trends, extension of measurement frameworks to refining and processing stages, quantification of transport corridor vulnerability through network analysis, and integration of environmental, social, and governance indicators into risk assessment frameworks. The researchers stressed that sustainable mineral cooperation under the BRI requires a systems perspective extending beyond reserve access to include supply elasticity, circular economy strategies, and alignment with emerging standards such as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
Source: Li, Yizhuo; Li, Jiapan; and Shao, Anlin. 'Production Concentration of Key Minerals in Belt and Road Countries: Measurement and Analysis.' Sustainability, vol. 18, no. 18, article 9670, September 21, 2026. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18189670
Source: mdpi.com