China's gold imports are poised to reach approximately 1,700 tonnes in 2026, setting a decade-high record, according to analysis from precious metals specialists at Heraeus. This projection reflects a dramatic surge in Chinese gold inflows, which have already surpassed full-year 2025 import levels midway through the current year. China imported 142 tonnes of gold in August alone, bringing first-eight-months 2026 imports to 1,141 tonnes, representing a 72% increase compared to 663 tonnes over the same period in 2025 and already exceeding the 940 tonnes imported throughout the entirety of 2025, according to Heraeus analysts.
The sustained import momentum occurs despite historically elevated gold prices, primarily driven by continued investment demand while Chinese jewelry consumption remains relatively weak. These commercial imports operate independently from purchases by the People's Bank of China, which added an additional 20 tonnes to its official reserves in August. Heraeus noted that if Chinese gold imports maintain this current trajectory through the remainder of 2026, annual totals would reach approximately 1,700 tonnes, marking the highest import volume this decade.
On the production side, Australia's gold mining output continued its upward trajectory during fiscal year 2025-26, with the country producing 303 tonnes by the end of its financial year in June, broadly consistent with its long-term annual production rate of approximately 300 tonnes. Output improved across most operations during the June quarter, with several smaller producers also commencing production. Australia's 303 tonnes represents approximately 8% of global mined gold supply, which totaled 3,822 tonnes in 2025.
Indonesia is implementing an initiative to encourage privately held gold stocks into the formal financial system. The government estimates that households hold approximately 1,800 tonnes of gold outside formal investment channels and has asked state-owned institutions to mobilize around 20% of this metal—roughly 360 tonnes—into bullion banking and financial products. The scheme aims to convert privately held metal into bank deposits, collateral, and other financial assets while deepening Indonesia's domestic bullion market.
India's precious metals demand faces headwinds from weak monsoon conditions. Heraeus warned that India's weak monsoon will likely suppress rural gold demand during the current festival and wedding season, with rural consumption representing over 50% of the country's total bullion demand. Monsoon rainfall was approximately 15% below its long-term average by late September, presenting a downside risk to gold demand through potentially lower crop yields affecting rural incomes.
Historical World Gold Council analysis suggests a 1% increase in rainfall relative to average correlates with a 0.2% increase in gold demand, implying that this year's rainfall deficit could create a modest demand headwind. Indian gold demand totaled 768 tonnes in 2025, representing roughly 15% of global consumption. Silver markets are approaching a critical technical inflection point as renewed U.S. dollar strength pressures prices.
Silver prices declined below $65 per ounce last week as the dollar index rebounded above 101.0 toward yearly highs, positioning silver at an important technical level. Heraeus analysts identified $60 per ounce as a key test: a renewed rally toward $70 per ounce despite a strengthening dollar, hawkish Federal Reserve stance, and rising bond yields could signal confirmation of a potential bottoming process. Conversely, if silver falls below $60 per ounce, this could indicate continuation of the bearish downtrend marked by lower highs and lower lows that has persisted since silver's late January peak.
The 10-year Treasury yield's rise to 5.22% and the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) real yield reaching 2.8% suggest the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike in September was insufficient to reassure markets. Heraeus emphasized that the concurrent rise in both real and nominal yields carries particular significance for precious metals, indicating that the Treasury sell-off has not been driven solely by higher inflation expectations but also by investors demanding higher inflation-adjusted returns, consistent with anticipation that monetary policy could remain tighter for longer. This development occurs as Brent crude remains around $100 per barrel, and despite renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations, a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz does not appear imminent.
India's silver imports showed renewed strength in August following several months of weak inflows. India imported 15.5 million ounces of silver in August, the first time since February that monthly imports exceeded 10 million ounces and 36% higher than the 11.4 million ounces imported in August 2025. However, despite this strong monthly recovery, year-to-date imports remain depressed, with estimated January-August 2026 imports of 75.6 million ounces representing a 24% decline compared to 99.1 million ounces over the same period in 2025.
The August rebound follows several months of unusually low imports after licensing requirements introduced in May complicated the import process, while high silver prices reduced demand. Heraeus analysts noted that the upswing suggests physical inflows are beginning to normalize, although year-to-date imports remain significantly below 2025 levels. Source: Heraeus precious metals analysis as reported by Kitco News.
Source: kitco.com