Global supply of copper and nickel is set to fall well short of demand over the coming decade, according to research cited by Industrial Info Resources (IIR), which suggests prices for these metals could double by 2036. The analysis, written by Paul Wiseman for IIR News Intelligence, draws on new research from trade credit insurer Coface, which projects a 10% supply shortfall for copper, nickel and aluminum by 2035. Coface says the shortage will constrain supplies and raise costs for manufacturers in North America, the focus of its study, as well as in much of the developed world.
Coface expects supply growth to lag well behind demand. Over the next decade, supply is expected to grow just 0.4% a year for aluminum, 1% for copper and 1.5% for nickel, while demand for all three is projected to grow about 1.8% a year, and faster under a net-zero scenario. Coface says electrification is responsible for almost three-quarters of global copper demand, and data center growth is adding further pressure to the supply chain.
For nickel, which is a key ingredient in batteries for electric vehicles and battery energy-storage systems, Coface warns that the refined market could face a deficit of roughly 35% of projected demand, driven largely by battery manufacturing. Mining companies face serious constraints in responding. According to the report, mine restarts can be completed in a few months or a year, but most shut-in mines are too small to fill much of the gap.
New, larger mines can require up to 17 years for permitting, construction and completion, and Coface notes that only about 1% of planned mines ever reach production. IIR is tracking more than 1,500 copper-mining projects worldwide, with a total investment value (TIV) of more than $325 billion, and more than 430 nickel-mining projects with a TIV of more than $115 billion. Of the copper projects, fewer than 200 are given a high probability of completion.
Among these, China leads with $8.26 billion across 45 projects, followed by Argentina with $6.96 billion across five projects and Kazakhstan with $3.40 billion across 10 projects. Among the nickel projects, 43 are rated high probability, which IIR describes as just under 10%. The copper outlook could deteriorate quickly, according to a recent report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), which expects the market to move into deficit as soon as 2028.
BNEF said that, barring radical changes in investment, the market could be short by 20 million metric tons by 2050, a shortfall that could significantly slow the shift toward electrification. BNEF estimates that $332 billion of investment in copper mining would be needed to meet expected demand. Trade barriers are adding to these supply pressures.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions have led to trade restrictions, sanctions and tariffs. An April 2026 report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) found that export restrictions on critical raw materials increased fivefold between 2009 and 2024. The largest increases came early in that period, although 2022 and 2023 also saw rapid growth, coinciding with a spike in raw material and energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The OECD describes these levels as historically high. It also notes a rise in the most restrictive measures, outright export prohibitions, since 2010, with bans accounting for more than a quarter of all measures introduced in 2024. The OECD said governments are increasingly prioritizing national interests, including generating public revenue, safeguarding domestic supply, boosting processing and value addition, and protecting local downstream industries.
The source does not provide current copper or nickel price levels, exchange quotes from the LME, COMEX or SHFE, or warehouse inventory data. The price-doubling projection is therefore presented as IIR's conclusion from the supply and demand research it cites, and it cannot be measured against current market prices using this report alone.
Source: industrialinfo.com