Copper futures touched a record intraday price of $6.95 per pound on September 22, 2026, closing at $6.92, marking a significant milestone for the commodity market. The rally gained momentum a day after prominent investor Michael Burry identified a copper miner as his indirect artificial intelligence bet, signaling growing confidence in copper's investment potential amid broader market dynamics. The acceleration in copper prices since mid-September has been driven largely by Chinese buyers stocking ahead of the holiday season.
Shanghai copper cathode inventories have fallen to 43,900 tonnes, representing the lowest levels since 2023, according to weekly Shanghai Metals Market data released Monday as reported by Bloomberg. This supply tightness extends to London, where cancelled warrants on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to 122,150 tonnes on Tuesday, equaling 48% of metal on warrant and leaving 133,725 tonnes available, according to MINING.COM data. Copper's performance in 2026 has significantly outpaced precious metals.
The commodity has gained nearly 20% year-to-date and more than 46% over the past year. By comparison, gold is up only 0.02% year-to-date, while silver has declined 8.5%. Over the past year, however, silver has risen 49.2% and gold 15.47%.
Burry's investment thesis centers on a fundamental supply-demand imbalance driven by a critical gap in new copper mine development. In a September 21 Substack post, Burry explained his positioning outside the crowded artificial intelligence stock rally, noting copper's appeal as an investment as it matures in application. His specific pick is Ero Copper, a Brazil-focused copper-and-gold producer.
Data cited from Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok underscores the scarcity narrative. Major copper discoveries with deposits containing at least 500,000 tonnes have fallen from double digits annually to one or two, with none occurring in 2025. This discovery shortage carries significant implications because mines require approximately 18 years to transition from deposit to production, while data centers add copper demand within two to three years—creating a fundamental timing mismatch.
S&P Global's long-range outlook supports this bullish copper narrative. The firm expects demand to climb 50% to 42 million tonnes by 2040. Without significant adjustments, S&P Global projects a 10-million-tonne shortfall by 2040.
However, the near-term supply picture remains more ambiguous. CRU had projected a 639,000-tonne global surplus for 2026, though it viewed the market as balanced at best in August. Burry acknowledged that part of the current rally reflects a temporary lull in supply rather than structural fundamentals.
Near-term price direction hinges on pending policy decisions. Traders are awaiting the White House tariff decision, which will determine whether US copper stockpiles reach international buyers, potentially reshaping supply dynamics and price trajectories. Earlier this month, copper declined almost 8% following reports that a White House tariff plan had stalled, though the metal has subsequently recovered as global shortage concerns persist.
Source: beincrypto.com