Copper prices reached new peaks on August 25, 2026, as anticipation of US import duties continues to redirect metal flows into American warehouses, converting what was expected to be an ample global surplus into regional shortages. COMEX copper for September delivery climbed as much as 1.8% to $6.7270 per pound, equivalent to approximately $14,830 per tonne, surpassing the previous high of $6.7140 recorded on August 12. The contract was last trading up 1.6% at $6.7125, roughly $550 per tonne above the London Metal Exchange price, representing a premium of nearly 4 percent.
On the LME, the three-month copper contract rose 0.4% to $14,251 per tonne following a Monday settlement at $14,201, which marked its strongest close ever. During the session, the contract reached as high as $14,343 per tonne, approaching within 1.3% of January's record peak of $14,527.50. The metal had previously hit $14,396 per tonne on August 17 before a wave of returning supply pushed prices back toward the $14,000 level.
LME warrant stocks surged 74.5% in a week, including the largest single-day inflow since 2024, while the cash premium over three-month metal fell sharply to $248 from the five-year high of $434 recorded earlier in the month. The relief period proved short-lived. Withdrawal orders for 51,400 tonnes entered the warehouse system on Monday, with approximately 65,400 tonnes scheduled for removal in recent days as metal resumed flowing across the Atlantic to COMEX.
Inventories at COMEX have climbed for 46 consecutive sessions, reaching a record 675,185 tonnes. The United States imported 885,000 tonnes of refined copper in the first half of 2026, up 3 percent year-over-year and on track to approach 2025's record import level of 1.64 million tonnes, as traders brace for additional tariff uncertainty. The Washington administration is considering duties on refined copper of 15 percent beginning January 2027, potentially rising to 30 percent from 2028 onward.
CRU initially projected a 639,000-tonne global surplus for 2026 but has since revised its assessment, viewing the market as at best balanced. A principal copper analyst at CRU noted that if imports continue at the current pace, the market could effectively show a deficit. A Macquarie strategist calculated that it would take years to absorb the record COMEX stockpile based on current consumption patterns.
Bank of China International's Amelia Fu anticipates further record highs in copper prices in the coming weeks or months. In contrast, Glencore CEO Gary Nagle has argued that a tariff decision, regardless of its direction, would cool prices by removing the current uncertainty from the market. The copper sector's strength has dramatically benefited major producers.
Southern Copper, the Grupo Mexico unit targeting more than 1 million tonnes of annual output by 2029, jumped 15 percent over five sessions and hit a record $220.78 per share after a 6.3 percent gain on Friday. Wall Street consensus price targets Southern Copper near $166, more than 20 percent below current market levels. CICC, the Beijing-based state-backed investment bank, downgraded the stock to market perform on valuation grounds last week despite the company reporting record second-quarter sales of $4.3 billion and announcing a dividend increase.
The rally has reshaped the mining sector hierarchy. At approximately $183 billion in market capitalization, Southern Copper now exceeds Rio Tinto's value of just under $180 billion, trailing only BHP's $246 billion, even though Rio generates nearly four times the revenue and more than double the profit over the past year. Other major copper producers have also performed strongly.
Freeport added almost 19 percent over the week to trade within cents of its all-time high, while First Quantum, Ivanhoe Mines, and Teck Resources each gained approximately 11 percent. Zijin Mining emerged as the laggard, falling 2.5 percent on Tuesday after the Chinese group warned that its 1.2 million tonne mined copper target faces pressure, with flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo expected to reduce its attributable output by up to 57,000 tonnes this year. Ivanhoe Electric gained just 1 percent on Monday despite the US Export-Import Bank increasing its potential loan commitment for the Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona by one-third to $1.1 billion.
South32 saw minimal movement on a 61 percent boost to the reserve estimate at Sierra Gorda in Chile. COMEX copper is up 19 percent year-to-date in 2026 and approximately 50 percent over the past year, reflecting the metal's sustained strength amid ongoing supply and demand imbalances.
Source: indexbox.io