Base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) mostly declined in the session covered by ICICI Securities' Daily Commodities Outlook, dated 28 November 2025, with copper, aluminium and zinc all lower while lead edged higher. According to the report, LME copper closed at $10,940 per tonne, down 0.32%, after trading between a high of $10,979 and a low of $10,893. LME aluminium closed at $2,829 per tonne, down 1.14%, and LME zinc settled at $3,015 per tonne, down 1.36%.
LME lead gained 0.35% to $1,987 per tonne. The report links the softness in copper to weak economic data from China and renewed concerns over the country's property sector. It notes that China's industrial profits contracted in October and that developer Vanke sought to delay a bond repayment.
The analysts said Vanke had sought to delay an onshore bond repayment for the first time, rekindling worries about a possible spillover effect. The report lists stock levels in tonnes in its warehouse data, showing copper at 156,500 tonnes (down 75 tonnes, or 0.05%), aluminium at 541,725 tonnes (down 2,000 tonnes, or 0.37%), zinc at 49,925 tonnes (up 1,925 tonnes, or 4.01%), lead at 264,975 tonnes (up 400 tonnes, or 0.15%) and nickel at 254,520 tonnes (up 1,038 tonnes, or 0.41%). The analysts expect copper to trade with a negative bias, citing weak demand from China and rising inventories at LME-registered warehouses.
They also pointed to a series of disappointing economic data from the United States and China, which they said has raised concerns about the economic health of both countries and the demand outlook. The report quotes Paul White, Secretary-General of the International Copper Study Group, who said copper output growth is forecast to slow to 0.9% in 2026. For trading, the report recommended an intraday sell on December copper contracts on MCX at 1022-1023, with a target of 1013 and a stop loss at 1028.
The analysts also said MCX copper could slip towards 1013 as long as it stays below 1028. The wider backdrop included expectations for US monetary policy easing. The report cites the CME FedWatch tool, which showed traders pricing an almost 87% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, up from 83% a day earlier and 39% a week earlier.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 99.60, down 0.07%, while the report said the dollar was headed for its steepest weekly drop in four months. Comex gold closed at $4,202 per toz, up 0.60%, and Comex silver closed at $52.92 per toz, up 3.83%. Source: ICICI Direct Research, citing Bloomberg, Reuters and the International Copper Study Group as referenced in the report.
Source: icicidirect.com