Gold finished the week ended October 9, 2026 at $4,186 an ounce, down 0.1% week over week according to the LBMA Gold Price PM, as lower bond yields and continued investment demand offset a firmer U.S. dollar and softer futures positioning. The World Gold Council (WGC), cited by ScrapMonster, said gold's year-to-date loss widened to 4.2%. The quiet weekly move masked a split between investor groups, with ETF buyers still adding metal while futures traders reduced their exposure.
Preliminary WGC data showed global physically backed gold ETFs recording net inflows of approximately $593 million, which the WGC equated to around 4 tonnes of gold. Total reported ETF holdings stood near 4,264.5 tonnes, with assets under management of approximately $576.6 billion. By region, European funds recorded inflows of about $362.9 million (2.5 tonnes) and Asian funds about $336.9 million (2.3 tonnes), while North American funds posted an outflow of about $111.2 million (1.0 tonne).
The WGC noted that its weekly ETF figures were preliminary and did not yet include complete reporting from every tracked fund. In futures markets, COMEX managed-money net long positioning fell from approximately 387 tonnes to 357 tonnes equivalent during the latest reported week. The WGC said options traders had become less bearish and that Chinese investors increased long exposure after returning from the Golden Week holiday.
ScrapMonster's analysis concluded that there is no single investor consensus: shorter-term futures traders have been reducing exposure, while ETF investors, particularly in Europe and Asia, have continued to add gold. Government debt has become a more prominent theme in the WGC's analysis. The WGC pointed to recent volatility in France's bond market, which pushed long-term government bond term premiums to their highest levels since the early 2000s, and noted growing scrutiny of public debt burdens across several major economies.
In the United States, the federal budget deficit approached $2 trillion in fiscal 2026, equivalent to approximately 6% of GDP, compared with a historical average near 3.8%, according to data cited by the WGC. The WGC argues that persistent fiscal concerns can strengthen gold's appeal as an asset that carries no sovereign credit exposure, although it stresses that gold does not rise automatically when deficits increase. The latest weekly figures follow a volatile September.
Gold fell 8.5% during the month, finishing around $4,176 an ounce, yet global gold ETFs attracted approximately $10 billion and added about 67 tonnes, pushing total holdings to a record at the end of September. Inflows have slowed sharply since then but have not disappeared, which ScrapMonster and the WGC cite as a reason the current correction differs from a conventional liquidation cycle. Monetary policy remains the main headwind.
Bond yields edged lower during the reporting week, reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, but yields remain high by recent historical standards. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed policymakers had unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate increase, and most expected at least one additional increase before year-end. The U.S. dollar also edged higher, adding pressure on bullion for buyers using other currencies.
Geopolitical developments are pulling in competing directions. Middle East tensions continued to support elevated oil prices, keeping inflation risks in focus. Markets also monitored changes to U.S. sanctions affecting Russian diesel supplies and a energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine announced by President Donald Trump, whose durability and details remained uncertain.
Escalation can strengthen safe-haven demand, while higher oil prices can raise inflation expectations and support tighter monetary policy, which weighs on gold. The next scheduled catalysts are U.S. data releases. The September Consumer Price Index is due on October 14 at 8:30 a.m.
ET, and the WGC said a softer reading could strengthen the case for keeping rates unchanged at the October meeting, while a stronger reading could reinforce expectations of restrictive policy. The September Producer Price Index and advance September retail sales are scheduled for October 15, with the WGC expecting retail-sales growth to slow after strong back-to-school spending in August. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book is also due on October 14, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to take part in a discussion with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok on October 15.
Sources: ScrapMonster market report citing World Gold Council Weekly Markets Monitor and preliminary ETF data; LBMA Gold Price PM; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau release schedules as cited by ScrapMonster; Federal Reserve September meeting minutes as cited by ScrapMonster.
Source: scrapmonster.com