Ramelius Resources has raised its FY27 to FY30 production outlook by approximately 5%, with FY30 production now expected to reach 560,000 to 610,000 ounces, up 11% from its previous guidance of 500,000 to 550,000 ounces. According to Goldman Sachs, the higher forecast is primarily driven by improved grades at Mt Magnet, while all-in sustaining costs (AISC) and growth capex were revised higher by 16% and 14%, respectively. Gold demand remains resilient despite headwinds from higher yields and a stronger U.S. dollar, according to BMO.
Investor demand continues to be robust, supported by ETF inflows, while physical demand is strengthening in India as local market discounts narrow amid resilient wedding-related demand. Chinese imports, ETF buying and futures activity also point to healthy underlying investment demand. Chinese gold imports surpassed 1,000 tons through August, already exceeding the full-year 2025 total and marking the highest level for the period in data going back to 2017, according to Zijie Wu at Jinrui Futures.
A stronger yuan has created favorable conditions for imports by lowering the local cost of dollar-denominated gold. Platinum was the best-performing precious metal for the week but still declined 1.62%, while silver was the worst performer, down 3.58%. On the negative side, Shandong Gold Mining lowered its 2026 gold production target to 36 to 38 tonnes from at least 49 tonnes previously, citing stricter safety requirements.
Full-year production is now expected to fall below the 48.89 tonnes produced in 2025, while both net income and operating income are projected to decline year-over-year. Political and security risks have intensified across West Africa's gold mining sector, according to RBC. Mali's security environment deteriorated sharply in early 2026, while Zijin Mining's attempted takeover of Allied Gold collapsed in July.
Resource nationalism has intensified in Burkina Faso, where the state is now the majority owner of six of the country's 15 active gold mines, highlighting growing political and operational risks for miners across the region. Kinross revised its 2026 to 2027 production guidance down 8% to 1.84 to 1.86 million ounces, according to RBC. The reduction reflects operational challenges at La Coipa, including winter weather and recovery issues, as well as lower grades, mining rates and recoveries at Round Mountain.
AISC guidance was also increased by 5%. Midtier gold producers could increase production by approximately 80% through 2030, while senior producers continue to face challenges replacing depleted reserves, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. With leading senior miners holding roughly 26 billion dollars in cash, consolidation pressure across the gold sector is expected to remain elevated.
Elemental Royalty agreed to acquire five royalties and streams from Orion Mine Finance for 290 million dollars, according to CIBC. The transaction is expected to contribute approximately 1,500 gold-equivalent ounces in 2026, prompting the company to raise 2026 guidance to 19,500 to 22,000 GEOs. Elemental also increased its average production guidance for 2030 to 2032 to 52,000 GEOs.
Artemis Gold entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Vista Gold, owner of the Mt. Todd gold project in Australia's Northern Territory, in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately 427 million dollars, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The deal represents a 25% premium to Vista's last closing price and values the company at approximately 82 dollars per reserve ounce, less than one-tenth the average for midtier producers.
Elevated gold equity valuations could limit further upside without additional gains in bullion. Senior gold producers are trading at a forward 12-month FCF/EV yield of 6.3%, while royalty companies trade at a CF/P yield of 4.0%. Based on mid-cycle valuations, RBC estimates that current equity prices imply gold prices of approximately 4,425 dollars per ounce for senior producers and 4,450 dollars per ounce for royalty companies.
Higher Treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations are pressuring gold prices. Gold fell to as low as 4,244.57 dollars per ounce on September 24, extending its recent decline, while front-month futures posted a fourth consecutive losing session. Treasury yields above 5%, a stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations for an October Fed rate increase are creating near-term pressure for the non-yielding metal.
Russia's Finance Ministry proposed a 20% windfall tax on gold miners' additional income generated by higher global gold prices in ruble terms compared with 2025. The measure targets what the government considers additional rent income as it seeks to contain a widening budget deficit amid heavy military spending and weaker oil revenues.
Source: kitco.com