Fossil fuel importers paid an additional USD 330 billion for seaborne crude oil, oil products, and liquefied natural gas during the six months following the US-Israel strikes on Iran in late February 2026, according to analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). This represents the gross extra cost compared with what pre-war futures markets had forecast importers would pay over the same period. The conflict has triggered the largest sustained oil price shock since the 1990 Gulf War.
During the crisis's first six months, Asian LNG prices averaged 75 percent above pre-war expectations, European LNG prices 60 percent above, diesel 59 percent above, and crude oil 35 percent above. The analysis, authored by Luke Wickenden and Lauri Myllyvirta, reveals significant regional disparities in the burden of rising energy costs. Crude oil accounted for USD 164.1 billion of the total increase in fossil fuel import costs, followed by diesel and gasoil at USD 73.8 billion, gasoline at USD 35.7 billion, LNG at USD 38 billion across both basins, and jet fuel at USD 20 billion.
The volume figures reflect what importers actually purchased, already accounting for demand destruction as buyers could not afford fuel at elevated prices. The analysis excludes pipeline gas, coal, fuel oil, and naphtha, making the estimate conservative. Brent crude oil prices peaked at almost double their pre-strike level in the weeks following the strikes and have averaged 38 percent above pre-strike levels since then.
Oil traded above its pre-strike level on 94 percent of trading days. Brent spot prices averaged USD 93 per barrel between March and August 2026, the highest six-month average since the spike ending in December 2022 following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The crude premium has approximately halved from 50 percent above expectations in May to 22 percent in August, yet diesel prices have not eased proportionally, sitting 57 percent above expectations in March and 65 percent in August.
The cost distribution reveals stark disparities among nations. The European Union faced the largest gross additional cost at USD 78 billion, followed by China at USD 35 billion and India at USD 22 billion. However, when measured relative to GDP, the burden fell hardest on lower-income nations.
The typical low- or lower-middle-income importer paid 1.0 percent of its GDP, while the typical high-income importer paid 0.45 percent. Poorer countries carried roughly twice the relative burden. Egypt paid USD 5.2 billion, representing 1.33 percent of its GDP, equivalent to nearly five days of national income.
Among the top 20 payers, the burden relative to economic size varied fifteen-fold, from Egypt's 1.33 percent to Germany's 0.09 percent. South Africa, Chile, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines all paid more than 0.65 percent of their respective GDPs. Regionally, Europe and East Asia absorbed most of the cost.
The European Union paid USD 54 billion in net fossil fuel costs, while East Asia paid USD 49 billion, together accounting for more than twice the combined net cost of all other regions. Conversely, the Middle East came out ahead by USD 61.2 billion, North America by USD 47 billion, and Russia by USD 35.9 billion, with fossil fuel exporters benefiting substantially from elevated prices. Clean energy investments have provided partial mitigation.
In the first five months of the crisis, clean power generation added since 2020 saved importing countries an estimated USD 36 billion in avoided coal, gas, and oil imports, comprising USD 22 billion in gas imports, USD 10 billion in coal imports, and USD 5 billion in oil imports. USD 10.6 billion of this total existed specifically because of the war's price markup. In absolute terms, China achieved the largest savings at USD 7.9 billion, followed by Japan at USD 4.9 billion.
Measured against national fossil fuel import bills, Brazil avoided 35 percent of import value, Lithuania 25 percent, Denmark 24 percent, and Sweden 19 percent. According to the International Energy Agency, global renewable power investments totaled USD 700 billion in 2025, or USD 58 billion per month. The monthly cost of additional fossil fuel imports caused by higher seaborne oil and gas prices following the Iran crisis totaled USD 55.3 billion on average, making global monthly renewable investment only 5.6 percent higher than monthly import cost increases.
Liquefied petroleum gas prices affected households most directly in South and Southeast Asia and Africa, where LPG serves as the primary cooking fuel, particularly for rural and lower-income families. India, the world's largest LPG importer, experienced sharp price movements. The Saudi contract price rose from USD 545 per tonne in February to USD 750 per tonne in April before easing to USD 580 per tonne in July.
India's imported LPG bill over the six months totaled approximately USD 4.7 billion, with roughly one-fifth representing costs from the price shock. India imported 26 percent less LPG during the crisis period compared with pre-war expectations. LPG imports collapsed to half average volumes in March, recovering to 86 percent of normal levels by June.
The cost per 14.2-kilogram Indian domestic cylinder rose to approximately USD 8.1 at import parity from March to August 2026, compared with USD 6.28 in pre-war expectations, representing a 29 percent increase of roughly USD 1.8 per refill. US-supplied LNG volumes increased to 32 percent of India's imports by April, up from 8 percent in February, partially offsetting lost Gulf volumes. Prices have diverged significantly by region.
Asian LNG prices ran 75 percent above pre-war expectations between March and August 2026, European gas prices 60 percent above, and US gas 9 percent below, representing an 85-percentage-point difference between Asian and US gas prices. US natural gas, unexposed to the Hormuz crisis, did not break away from its pre-war futures curve, averaging 5 percent above pre-war expectations in March before falling 22 percent below by August. The analysis compared actual fossil fuel prices against the pre-war futures curve settled between 16 and 27 February 2026, the 12-day period before the strikes.
Volumes reflect observed seaborne arrivals, with pricing valued at each destination's own benchmark. The estimate excludes freight rates, pipeline gas, coal, fuel oil, and naphtha costs, making the figures conservative. Source: Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), energyandcleanair.org
Source: energyandcleanair.org