Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) importers will spend at least $39 billion more in 2026 on contracted and spot supplies, as Middle Eastern supply disruptions force buyers to secure replacement volumes at higher prices, according to an analysis by Rystad Energy published on OilPrice.com on October 26, 2026. Despite purchasing 60.7 million tonnes less LNG, total portfolio costs are expected to reach $256 billion, up 18% from a pre-war estimate. Disruptions to Qatari and UAE exports through the Strait of Hormuz are forcing buyers to find replacement volumes at higher prices.
Rystad Energy's modeling assumes that Qatari and UAE LNG deliveries will be unavailable from March through the end of 2026. Under this scenario, global LNG portfolio costs rise from $217.8 billion to at least $256.3 billion. Europe faces the largest increase, with its LNG bill rising by a minimum of $12 billion, or 18%, even as its demand falls by 24 million tonnes.
Europe is set to lose 20.6 million tonnes of the 24.7 million tonnes of Qatari LNG scheduled for delivery in 2026, before the conflict began. Europe entered the crisis already heavily reliant on spot purchases, leaving less room to increase that share further. After factoring in demand destruction, its spot import share is projected to rise by just 5.49% compared with pre-war estimates.
East Asia is better positioned to absorb the disruption, with spot purchases accounting for just 14.5% of its imports. A broader portfolio of supply contracts outside the Middle East and lower LNG demand help limit the region's exposure. Although East Asia has the largest nominal exposure to Gulf contracts, it faces the smallest relative increase in LNG costs among regions outside the Middle East, at 9.7%.
South Asia is adjusting primarily through lower imports, with Pakistan cutting purchases more sharply than India. In Africa and South America, Egypt and Brazil, respectively, are driving the rise in prices and import volumes, while the Middle East is adjusting through demand destruction. Christoph Halser, Senior Analyst, Gas and LNG Research at Rystad Energy, said: “This conflict has affected every player in the gas market to some degree, but not every economy is equally equipped to absorb the shock.
Some importers are better positioned to manage rising costs, while others have had little choice but to cut volumes and absorb the economic consequences. The crisis exposes a fundamental weakness in gas security: diversifying pricing benchmarks can help manage costs, but it does not guarantee physical supply. Importers need to assess their exposure to supply disruptions alongside price risk, building contract portfolios around reliable delivery routes and demand that cannot easily be replaced.
Ultimately, when cargoes can disappear overnight, the resilience of supply matters as much as the price paid for it.” According to Rystad Energy research, contract pricing terms are a key factor behind the divergence between East Asia and Europe. 82% of East Asia's long-term LNG contracts are linked to oil, whose price has risen far less than spot LNG. Those oil-linked contracts are up about 28%, compared with about 72% for contracts tied to hub and spot price benchmarks.
The average price in Europe is up 47%. Europe buys around 65% of its LNG on the spot market, while about a quarter of its long-term contracts are tied to gas price indexes, leaving it far more exposed to market volatility. Rystad Energy argues that Europe's outcome exposes a strategic shortcoming in relying on spot liquidity to secure residual gas demand.
Treating gas as a transitional fuel does not remove the need to procure the volumes still consumed, and deferring term procurement before substitutes are available leaves importers exposed to replacement-cost shocks. Contract tenor and volume flexibility should match residual demand, with supply origins and routes diversified. US Gulf Coast deliveries to Europe bypass the Strait of Hormuz, while deliveries to Asia may face Panama Canal constraints or require longer alternative voyages, making Australian and Canadian Pacific supply important alternatives.
Importers should also scrutinize portfolio contracts for replacement obligations and sourcing flexibility when contracted cargoes cannot be delivered as planned. Expanding US liquefaction capacity offers importers further opportunities to secure Henry Hub-indexed supply and diversify their exposure to global gas benchmarks. However, it also strengthens the link between global LNG demand and the US gas market.
Rising feedgas requirements from LNG terminals, alongside power-sector demand, could support Henry Hub prices even as new global liquefaction capacity eases spot prices in Asia and at the Dutch TTF benchmark. Rystad Energy suggests importers should assess whether the current cost advantage of Henry Hub-indexed contracts is likely to persist over the full contract term, rather than assuming today's price advantage will endure. Source: Rystad Energy, “The Iran War Just Added $39 Billion to the World's LNG Bill,” published on OilPrice.com, October 26, 2026.
Source: oilprice.com