Global liquefied natural gas prices are projected to rise significantly during the upcoming winter season as Europe faces historically low storage levels and North Asian buyers compete for supplies amid continued disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, according to industry executives speaking at the Gastech conference in Bangkok on September 17, 2026. European Union natural gas stocks are currently at 67% of capacity, marking a record low for this time of year and falling well short of the EU's target of 80% capacity by December, according to statements made at the conference. Shell's President of Integrated Gas Cederic Cremers characterized the situation as "historically low storage level heading into the end of fall," while executives from Norwegian energy major Equinor projected gas stocks could reach only 75% by November 1.
The vulnerability of Europe's energy market this winter differs markedly from the stockpiling surge that followed the Ukraine crisis in 2022. During the current summer months, European countries failed to aggressively build reserves due to lack of financial incentives in a backwardated market structure, where prompt prices are higher than future month prices. "Unfortunately, it seems to us that Europe is in a very difficult position going into this winter," said Cheniere Energy Chief Commercial Officer Anatol Feygin, adding that "inventory levels are low" and that prompt market conditions depend heavily on weather patterns.
The supply crisis has been exacerbated by the ongoing war with Iran, which has prevented Qatar and the United Arab Emirates from shipping LNG through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Shell data, this disruption has resulted in a loss of 36 million metric tons of supply during the year. Asian spot LNG prices have climbed steeply this year, nearly tripling to approximately $30 per million British thermal units, a dramatic increase from the pre-war range of around $10 per mmBtu.
This price elevation has already begun dampening demand among Asian buyers. Simon Flowers, chairman of consultancy Wood Mackenzie, warned that "there's a big risk if we have a cold winter because there's very little spare supply available, and it'll really test the market." Flowers projected that if winter temperatures fall below normal, LNG prices could reach $40 per million British thermal units, which he noted would be equivalent to approximately $240 per barrel for Brent crude oil. At such elevated levels, demand destruction would likely occur.
Conversely, if winter temperatures prove warmer than average, prices would remain elevated but may not increase substantially from current levels. Flowers added that the Iran conflict's escalation makes it probable that Hormuz LNG shipments will remain constrained through year-end. Equinor's Senior Vice President Marketing and Supply Helle Ostergaard Kristiansen told Reuters that a combination of cold winter conditions across Europe and Asia, coupled with continued Hormuz disruptions, would force European buyers to compete directly with Asian nations for supplies from the United States.
This dynamic presents additional challenges, as ExxonMobil Vice President for Global LNG Marketing Andrew Barry noted that the 45-day shipping journey from the U.S. to North Asia could hinder Asian buyers' ability to deploy vessels quickly to meet demand. "This winter can be a challenging time for sure," Barry stated. Germany's state-owned energy firm SEFE confirmed this week that it has already begun increasing natural gas storage levels as the continent enters winter with depleted inventories.
Shell's Cremers concluded that while all parties hope for mild winter conditions, "in all likelihood, with what we've seen the last few years, there will be more restocking need of getting into the winter, and no doubt then afterwards as well." Source: MarineLink (marinelink.com), Reuters reporting from Gastech conference, September 17, 2026.
Source: marinelink.com