Analysts have substantially raised their 2026 crude oil price forecasts as expectations diminish for a swift normalization of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to a new Reuters poll conducted in September 2026, Brent crude is now forecast to average $89.05 per barrel for the year, representing a significant increase from the $85.08 per barrel projection recorded just one month prior. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecasts have similarly been revised upward to an average of $83.90 per barrel, compared to $80.20 in the previous month's survey.
The September poll encompassed responses from 30 economists and analysts, with Brent forecasts ranging between $77.27 and $97.60 per barrel, reflecting considerable uncertainty regarding the sustainability of Gulf oil flow recovery efforts. A growing consensus among analysts indicates that a complete restoration of Hormuz shipping traffic in the near term is increasingly unlikely. HSBC has adjusted its forecast assumptions to account only for gradual improvements in maritime passage, characterizing the Strait as structurally impaired with liquids flows expected to remain substantially below the pre-conflict baseline of approximately 19-20 million barrels per day.
DBS Bank has similarly revised its expectations, declining to assume resolution of the underlying conflict within a three-to-six month timeframe. Despite these challenges, Gulf-producing nations have demonstrated significant success in restoring export volumes. Goldman Sachs estimates that Gulf oil exports, encompassing both conventional tanker shipments and vessels operating without active location transponders, reached 23.3 million barrels per day during the past week.
This figure approximates the 2025 average export levels following a doubling of exports during September. The Goldman assessment includes what are termed dark exports and represents total Gulf production flows rather than solely visible Hormuz transit traffic. China's crude import trajectory presents an additional source of market uncertainty.
Nomisma Energia anticipates strengthening crude demand as wartime inventory reductions reverse course and winter heating season approaches. Conversely, FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects have adopted more conservative positions, reducing their fourth-quarter import forecasts by approximately 400,000 barrels per day to 9.2-9.3 million barrels per day following Brent's resurgence above the $100 per barrel threshold, combined with elevated freight expenses and diminished availability of competitively-priced Iranian and Venezuelan crude supplies. Chinese crude imports have recovered from June's decade-low levels to nearly 9 million barrels per day in August, though this remains materially below the previous year's average.
OPEC+ is expected to provide limited near-term additional supply contribution. Reuters sources indicate that the organization is likely to maintain current production quotas unchanged when eight member states convene on Sunday. Economic Intelligence Unit analysts communicated to Reuters that subdued manufacturing performance and decelerating global economic expansion should prevent crude prices from returning to peak levels immediately following the conflict's initiation.
Nevertheless, analysts anticipate substantial inventory declines as consuming nations persist in drawing reserves from both commercial and emergency stockpiles to compensate for reduced Gulf supplies. The preponderance of analysts surveyed by Reuters do not anticipate a return to market surplus conditions until 2027, contingent upon improved Gulf maritime passage normalization, recuperating regional production capacity, and continued expansion of non-OPEC supply sources returning additional barrels to global markets. Source: Reuters, OilPrice.com
Source: oilprice.com