The threat of US tariffs on copper has drawn more than 1 million tonnes of metal into US stockpiles without any public spending, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). Comex warehouses now hold about 70% of the world's visible copper stocks, tightening supply elsewhere and supporting prices despite a global surplus, SMM reports. Comex copper reached a record 15,057 USD/tonne (6.83 USD/lb) on 22 September, according to SMM.
Over the same period, the arbitrage between Comex and the LME, which stood above 3,000 USD/tonne in July of last year, has narrowed to about 310 USD/tonne. SMM notes that this weaker spread reduces the incentive to ship metal to the United States. The US Commerce Department was due to report by 30 June on a possible tariff, which Trump could use to decide on a 15% duty from 2027, rising to 30% in 2028.
According to SMM, no decision had been announced at the time of publication. SMM cites Macquarie's estimate that US stocks are at about 1.6 million tonnes. Comex inventories have risen nearly 750% to more than 714,000 tonnes, while the US imported over 1.62 million tonnes of copper last year, compared with domestic output of 1 million tonnes, according to the same source.
SMM states that its data are processed from publicly available information, market communication and its internal database model, and are provided for reference only rather than as investment recommendations.
Source: news.metal.com