China's tungsten sector is experiencing robust growth driven by a confluence of factors including artificial intelligence-driven demand for semiconductor materials, geopolitical supply disruptions, and increasingly stringent domestic mining regulations that have tightened global supply chains. According to reporting from Shanghai Securities News and Xinhua Finance on September 16, 2026, multiple tungsten-related stocks on China's A-share market have demonstrated exceptional performance this year. Xiamen Tungsten Industry and China Tungsten High-Tech have both achieved gains exceeding 100% since the beginning of 2026, with the sector broadly characterized by strong upward momentum.
Xu Yongqi, Chief Analyst of Metal New Materials at Huachin Securities, attributed the sector's rise to multiple converging factors: the AI computing power cycle driving demand across relevant industrial chains, excess restocking demand triggered by anxieties over critical mineral supplies amid geopolitical conflicts, and persistently tight global supply conditions. On the supply side, regulatory tightening has significantly constrained tungsten ore availability. The Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China, which took effect in June 2026, officially designated 36 types of mineral resources including tungsten as strategic mineral resources.
Additionally, on June 25th, the State Administration of Mine Safety Supervision issued regulations controlling excavation and stripping operations at metal and non-metal mines, further elevating compliance costs for tungsten ore mining. These measures have resulted in an overall contraction trend in tungsten concentrate supplies. International supply disruptions have intensified the tightening.
The United States and Zimbabwe have successively adjusted their tungsten mining policies, disrupting overseas supply chains. Notably, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security announced on August 27th that it will impose a one-year export control on tungsten scrap and tungsten-containing materials recovered from lithium batteries.
Under the new regulations, sellers must prioritize sales to domestic U.S. buyers, with exports essentially prohibited except through individual exemption applications. Wu Jinkai, chief analyst of metals at Guotai Junan Securities, noted that the U.S. strategic reserve escalation and supply chain security measures have strengthened tungsten's strategic attributes, expected to support upward price movement. He further indicated that tight tungsten raw material supplies in Japan may intensify, while capacity expansion for critical semiconductor materials such as high-end tungsten rods and tungsten hexafluoride may face continued restrictions.
On the demand side, tungsten's traditional applications remain stable across alloys, electronics, and chemical engineering sectors. However, artificial intelligence represents a significant new demand driver. The rapid expansion of AI server deployment is creating increased demand for printed circuit board drill bits, whose cutting edges are made of tungsten-based hard alloy materials.
Wu Jinkai identified three factors driving PCB drill bit demand growth: increased thickness of AI server PCB boards, addition of more layers, and shortened service life of drill bits. These factors collectively boost demand for cemented carbide rods, while the recovery of downstream manufacturing continues to improve overall cemented carbide demand. Guotai Junan Securities' research estimates that China's tungsten supply will reach 50,000 metal tons in 2026 and 2027, rising to 52,000 metal tons in 2028.
Conversely, demand projections show 81,700 metal tons for 2026, increasing to 87,700 metal tons in 2027 and 93,100 metal tons in 2028. This analysis indicates the tight balance between supply and demand in China's tungsten market is expected to persist throughout this period. Tungsten prices experienced significant volatility in the first half of 2026, reaching a historical peak of 1,051,200 RMB per ton in March before undergoing sharp corrections.
As of September 17, 2026, scheelite concentrate prices stood at 409,300 RMB per ton, representing a 197.67% increase compared to 137,500 RMB per ton in the corresponding period of 2024. Tungsten carbide prices rose from 302 RMB per kilogram in September 2024 to 840 RMB per kilogram, an increase of 178.15%. Ammonium paratungstate prices increased from 204,000 RMB per ton to 592,500 RMB per ton, a rise of 190.44%.
Analysts believe that as supply tightening reshapes pricing mechanisms, surging demand is expected to catalyze a new round of price increases. Wu Kaikai observed that since 2026, tungsten prices have experienced rapid rises followed by sharp corrections. With steady medium-term demand growth and continued supply constraints, against the backdrop of overseas strategic reserve upgrading, the price center is expected to move higher.
The sector's profitability has been substantially enhanced by sustained high prices. During the first half of 2026, China Molybdenum achieved net profit of 16.152 billion RMB with revenue of 135.32 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 86.27%. The company's tungsten business generated revenue of 3.195 billion RMB, a historical high with year-on-year growth of 187.97%, while achieving a gross profit margin of 77.48%.
Xiamen Tungsten achieved first-half revenue of 35.014 billion RMB with net profit attributable to parent shareholders of 2.201 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 127.04%. Xianglu Tungsten Industry demonstrated exceptional performance with net profit growth of 2522.40% year-on-year, while achieving revenue of 2.633 billion RMB. As of June 2026, the company held order backlog valued at 1.504 billion RMB.
Institutions predict that enterprises with high-quality mineral resources and those having established layouts in high-end tungsten products will continue to benefit from ongoing industry dynamics. China's dominant position in global tungsten reserves and output, combined with industry consolidation and structural demand adjustments, is expected to maintain tungsten prices at elevated levels. Source: SunSirs (China Commodity Data Group), Shanghai Securities News, Xinhua Finance, Huachin Securities, Guotai Junan Securities, China Merchants Securities, and Xiangcai Securities.
Source: sunsirs.com