Wall Street's oil forecasters have turned more bullish on crude prices, with a fresh Reuters poll released on Wednesday showing analysts raising their 2026 price targets for crude as Gulf export disruptions persist longer than anticipated. The September survey of 30 economists and analysts now pegs average Brent crude at $89.05 a barrel for 2026, up from $85.08 just one month earlier. U.S. crude is expected to average $83.90 for the year, representing a meaningful upward revision driven primarily by supply concerns rather than demand strength.
The primary driver of this forecast revision is disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Several analysts told Reuters they do not expect a full restoration of exports through the strait in the near term, forcing the market to absorb what appears to be a structural supply shortfall rather than a temporary disruption. Suvro Sarkar, Head of Energy Research at DBS Bank, stated: "We are not betting on a resolution to the conflict within the next three to six months.
Significant upside risks to our forecasts exist if conflict continues to escalate instead of dialling down." HSBC's base case assumes only gradual improvement in shipping conditions, describing the Strait of Hormuz as "structurally impaired," with flows recovering slowly and remaining well below the roughly 19-20 million barrels per day that transited through it before the conflict. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf exports, including so-called "dark exports" from ships operating with transponders switched off, have climbed back to 23.3 million barrels per day, roughly matching 2025 levels after doubling in September. For energy investors, elevated and sustained oil prices at these levels support the earnings trajectory for large integrated oil producers.
Exxon Mobil and Chevron both benefit when crude remains in the high-$80s to low-$90s range rather than sliding toward $70, as their upstream production units generate fatter margins on each barrel produced. TD Cowen raised its price targets on both companies late last month, citing refining performance as a key indicator of financial health heading into year-end. This follows the Reuters poll in pointing toward supply tightness, rather than demand collapse, as the primary driver shaping energy sector earnings.
China represents the critical variable for near-term market direction. Analysts note the world's largest crude importer has spent much of 2026 drawing down strategic stockpiles built up before the conflict began, allowing it to avoid aggressive competition for cargoes on the spot market. This dynamic is shifting, with Chinese imports climbing to nearly 9 million barrels per day in August, still below historical norms but clearly trending higher.
Nomisma Energia's president stated that Chinese reserves "turned out to be much larger than estimated at the start of the conflict," but they remain finite, and buying should strengthen from here as winter approaches, potentially adding another layer of demand pressure just as supply remains constrained. Downside risks remain in the forecast. Most analysts still expect the oil market to swing into surplus in 2027 as shipping conditions normalize, Gulf production recovers, and non-OPEC supply continues expanding.
A sudden diplomatic breakthrough on Hormuz access could rapidly unwind a portion of this price support, and energy stocks tend to overshoot on the way down just as they do on the way up. Source: Trading Tips Research, Reuters poll (October 1, 2026)
Source: tradingtips.com