Nickel markets are returning toward balance in 2026 after several years of oversupply, according to Wood Mackenzie's latest base metals analysis, published on October 22, 2026 via GlobeNewswire and republished by Indovizka.com. Global refined nickel output is contracting by 2%, the first annual decline since 2015. The research house warns, however, that this headline stability masks a deep structural split between Class I and Class II nickel.
The Class II segment, which includes Indonesian NPI production, faces widening deficits from 2027. Wood Mackenzie attributes this to Indonesian NPI output consolidating below its 2025 peak under the weight of tighter RKAB mining quotas, falling ore grades and recent El Nino-related drought disruptions. In response, Chinese stainless steel mills are structurally increasing their use of scrap and Class I cathode in melt mixtures to hedge against shrinking NPI availability.
By contrast, the Class I and chemical segments face ongoing surplus, driven by expanding Indonesian HPAL projects and Chinese refining capacity. Localised sulphur supply constraints and power bottlenecks remain operational risks for the delivery of new projects. Wood Mackenzie expects nickel prices to recover towards US$19,000/t by 2030, despite Class I oversupply and weak battery demand.
The forecast is subject to Indonesian policies and sulphur supply disruptions. The release does not specify the current price level. On the battery side, the analysis expects lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistry to dominate the mass battery market through 2030, driven by Chinese exports, rapid gigafactory expansion and significant advances in charging speed.
Wood Mackenzie also notes that sodium-ion is moving toward industrial-scale commercialisation, with large-scale shipments in China expected to begin in Q3 2026. The broader context is a power infrastructure build-out linked to AI. Wood Mackenzie says the global data centre pipeline now surpasses 250 GW, and that transmission networks, substations and dedicated power generation can require three to four times more metal than the facilities they support.
Upstream investment, however, is lagging. Project sanctioning remains below expectations despite elevated commodity prices, due to permitting delays, geopolitical uncertainty and increasing project complexity. Lindsay Grant, Vice President of Metals and Mining Research at Wood Mackenzie, said that high prices should trigger investment, yet project sanctioning remains below expectations, and that without faster approvals and investment commitments the industry cannot deliver the mine supply needed to support future growth.
He added that across copper, aluminium, nickel and lithium, future supply depends on investment decisions being made today. Source: Wood Mackenzie, via GlobeNewswire (October 22, 2026); republished by Indovizka.com (October 23, 2026).
Source: indovizka.com