World Steel Dynamics (WSD) expects global steel demand in 2026 to come in at considerably lower levels than the World Steel Association forecasts, as Chinese consumption is falling faster than expected. Chief executive Philipp Englin made the remarks in a keynote at the Steel Networking Summit in Istanbul, as reported by Kallanish. According to Englin, China’s apparent steel consumption was down almost 6.5% through August.
He said a 2% decline “doesn’t appear to be likely to be the number. I think it will be significantly lower than that.” Chinese finished steel exports have eased slightly this year, but including semi-finished products, exports have grown again in 2026. Englin said the growth in semis is primarily a substitution for Iranian semis in international markets, showing how quickly China can fill any gap in supply.
He also argued that international hot-rolled coil prices have been driven mainly by Chinese exports over the past three to four years, leaving steelmakers both inside and outside China losing money. Outside China and India, steel demand has barely grown over the past decade and is, in Englin’s words, “really just absorbing the net exports out of China.” The Middle East conflict is weighing on demand, while India and, to a lesser extent, Vietnam are the only regions where consumption is growing appreciably. Englin observed that developing economies now find it almost impossible to follow the traditional route of building steel and manufacturing sectors.
Some estimate Chinese net exports of steel-containing goods at 130-150 million tonnes, in addition to its finished steel exports. Raw material support for steel prices has also weakened. Englin said iron ore is well off its peak and faces further headwinds, while coking coal’s recent gains, linked to Chinese mine curtailments, have slowly unwound.
In the United States, 50% tariffs have produced the highest sustained prices the market has seen, but the resulting arbitrage is drawing imports back. Sheet imports are approaching an annualised 8 million tonnes, up from about 5.5 million tonnes, while slab imports have jumped to almost 8 million tonnes annualised in recent months, from a traditional 3.5-4 million tonnes. Englin described this as “a massive arbitrage opportunity for the re-rollers.” In Europe, Englin called it “almost astounding” that prices have not improved more given the fall in imports, pointing to weak demand or inventory liquidation.
He said underlying demand indicators are not “flashing some kind of red disaster”. WSD still sees some upside for European domestic prices as imports fall and supply is cut “quite aggressively”, assuming the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system works as intended. Looking to 2027, Englin said downside forces outweigh upside ones, citing higher inflation, higher energy costs and more Chinese exports.
He described steel-intensive stimulus and output discipline in China as unlikely. However, with “okay” demand growth outside China and slightly declining Chinese exports, “we might see another moderate increase in international steel prices,” he concluded. Source: Kallanish (Burak Odabasi, Türkiye), republished by Eurometal.net on 29 October 2026.
Source: eurometal.net