Battery raw materials expert Adam Webb of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence says the long-term outlook for lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and phosphate remains strong despite a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) growth. In a Q&A published by Mining.com.au on 3 November 2026 and written by Amy Rotman, Webb argues that battery energy storage systems (BESS) have become a major demand driver, pushing lithium into deficit as global battery deployment accelerates. On the EV market, Webb said global sales have grown massively in recent years but slowed this year.
He described a mixed regional picture. China, the largest EV market, has seen growth almost flatline this year after certain subsidies were removed towards the end of last year. In North America, sales spiked before the removal of tax credits and then declined.
Europe, by contrast, has seen EV sales rise significantly this year, which Webb attributed to high fuel prices driven by the war in Iran, subsidies in various European Union countries and imports of Chinese EVs. Benchmark expects 7% growth in global EV sales this year. For nickel, Webb said stainless steel remains the biggest demand sector, while batteries are an increasingly important driver.
The share of nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries has fallen as lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries gain ground in China, particularly in more economical EV models. Nevertheless, Webb said battery chemistries containing nickel and cobalt are still growing, and he expects cobalt-containing batteries to grow 10% this year, feeding through to rising demand for both metals. On the supply side, Webb said Indonesia dominates nickel and now accounts for around 60% of global supply.
Indonesia's Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Biaya (RKAB) quota system, which determines how much ore can be mined to supply its smelters, was significantly lower this year than last year and fell short of smelter requirements. Some operations have had to curtail production, resulting in a drop in Indonesian output. Webb also cited the closure of the Fort Saskatchewan refinery in Canada, which he said followed US sanctions on Cuban oil imports, as the refinery relied on a mine in Cuba that ran out of fuel.
Together, these factors led to a nickel output decline of around 1% this year. Demand has risen at the same time, and according to Benchmark's estimates the market is in a very narrow deficit but remains essentially balanced. Nickel prices have risen by about 15% from the 2025 average to the 2026 average, according to Webb.
Webb noted that Indonesia's quota system can support prices and keep its nickel industry profitable. Last year, nickel prices fell to a level at which much of the Indonesian nickel industry was unprofitable or operating at a loss. However, he warned that pulling this lever too hard could push prices so high that it destroys demand for the metal.
Looking ahead, Webb said Indonesia's nickel growth is expected to come mainly from high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations feeding the battery supply chain. He contrasted Indonesian laterite resources with Canadian projects exploiting sulphide resources, and noted that Western governments are seeking to diversify away from Chinese supply, while Chinese companies have a substantial role in Indonesia through joint ventures. On lithium, Webb said demand is expected to rise from around 2 million tonnes (Mt) today to 5Mt by 2040, requiring significant new mine supply globally.
He said the market has been in deficit this year, driven by BESS deployments, which increased by around 40% year-on-year, and by LFP production ramp-up in China. Lithium carbonate prices rose from around US$10,000 per tonne ($14,170) in mid-2025 to above US$20,000 by mid-2026. Webb described the recent pullback in prices as more sentiment-driven, with fundamentals still pointing to a deficit.
Webb identified oversupply of batteries, particularly in China and largely on the BESS side, as the main risk. He said battery production is expected to reach around 3 terawatt hours (TWh) this year, while demand is around 2.3TWh. He also flagged sodium-ion batteries as a technological risk, noting that while they are unlikely to be major in EVs, they could displace some Li-ion demand in BESS if they become commercialised at lower cost than LFP.
Source: Mining.com.au, "The next wave of battery metals growth", Q&A with Adam Webb, Head of Battery Raw Materials, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, by Amy Rotman, 3 November 2026.
Source: mining.com.au