Global markets opened Friday under pressure from a renewed risk-off move, according to Scotia Wealth Management's Morning Strategy Note. The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,720 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,185, its worst single-day decline since a Lam Research-driven rout the previous week. S&P 500 futures were down 1.1% and Nasdaq-100 contracts were off 2.6% premarket, as Amazon and Intel weighed on sentiment.
Amazon reported third-quarter revenue of $201.9 billion, below the $202.2 billion estimate, and a $42.4 billion free cash flow outflow over the trailing twelve months as quarterly capex surged above $77.0 billion. Intel's fourth-quarter revenue outlook of $15.0 to $16.0 billion missed the $17.0 billion consensus, and the company flagged a PC market slowdown expected to persist into 2028. Canada's economy stalled in the third quarter.
Statistics Canada data showed real GDP was unchanged in August, below the Bloomberg median estimate of 0.2% month-over-month, while advance information points to a 0.1% decline in September. Scotia Wealth Management calculated that Canadian GDP is tracking an annualized increase of 1.3% quarter-over-quarter in 3Q26 on an industry-based basis, well short of the 3.8% registered in 2Q26 on the same basis. On the more closely followed expenditure accounts, the bank noted that Canada grew 3.3% in 2Q26, and Scotiabank Economics had projected 2% growth for the third quarter as of early October, in line with the Bank of Canada's projection.
Markets assign roughly toss-up odds to a Bank of Canada hike at its December 12 meeting, unchanged from before the data, and the note argues the weak print has limited implications for that decision. The European Central Bank left all its policy settings unchanged, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2.50% after 25 basis point increases in June and September. Scotia Wealth Management forecasts a 25 basis point hike to 2.75% at the December 17 announcement, which it expects to be the last in the cycle, although it considers further hikes more likely than a conclusion of the tightening cycle.
In her press conference, Christine Lagarde said the ECB is not seeing material second-round effect risks, that energy prices have risen beyond the September baseline, and that inflation will be well above target in the coming quarters. Citing ECB sources, Reuters reported that recent increases in bond yields would lower growth by about 100 basis points and inflation by 90 basis points in 2027 and 2028 relative to the September baseline. Lagarde also announced she intends to step down in early February, ahead of the end of her term in October, and the EU will hold auditions for her successor over the next two months.
In the United States, third-quarter GDP advanced 3.4% quarter-over-quarter annualized, above the consensus of 3.2% and up from 2.2% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis data cited in the note. Personal consumption rose 3.8%. The September PCE report was less encouraging on inflation: core PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month, a re-acceleration from 0.2% in August, and accelerated to 3.1% year-over-year from 3.0%.
Scotia Wealth Management concludes that the data show growth has re-accelerated convincingly, removing near-term recession concerns, while the re-firming of core inflation narrows the path to rate cuts and keeps a December Fed rate hike on the table. Japan provided one of the day's main policy signals. The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25% in an 8–1 vote, with Hajime Takata dissenting in favour of an immediate hike to 1.50%.
The BoJ declared that underlying inflation has reached its 2.0% target for the first time since 2013, and projected CPI to remain around 2.0% through the forecast horizon. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the bank will judge a rate hike at each meeting, including December. The Nikkei 225 fell 2.1% to 63,290 and the KOSPI dropped 3.5%, while the Hang Seng gained 1.5% on domestic policy optimism.
Fixed income markets rallied despite the hawkish signals. The 10-year JGB yield fell 7.2 basis points to 2.76%, while the U.S. 10-year yield stood at 4.91% and the Canadian 10-year at 3.77%.
German Bunds rallied alongside the broader safe-haven move, while France remained the notable exception amid its ongoing fiscal crisis. Commodities showed divergent moves. Oil rose on renewed Iran-related geopolitical risk, with WTI up 2.0% to $104 per barrel and Brent up 2.6% to $117 per barrel, its highest level of the month.
The note cites reports that a top U.S. military commander briefed President Trump on military options against Iran, and that four tankers reportedly caught fire after hitting mines while attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. European TTF natural gas rose 5.1% to €103.6 per megawatt hour, crossing above €100 for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis. Gold fell 1.5% to $3,963 per ounce as Treasury yields declined, and copper was flat at $14,356.5 per tonne.
The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.3% to 101.71, while the yen strengthened 0.4% to 157.2 per dollar. Source: Scotia Wealth Management, Morning Strategy Note, October 30, 2026, citing Statistics Canada, Bloomberg Finance LP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and Reuters.