Oil prices moved higher as renewed tensions in the Middle East, attacks on energy infrastructure and persistent supply constraints kept markets on edge, according to a weekly review published by Mansfield Energy on October 30, 2026. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose more than $2 per barrel on Friday morning after declining $0.78 in the previous session. Analysts have raised their 2026 oil price forecasts, with Brent crude now expected to average above $90 per barrel for the first time since May.
Developments involving Iran remain a major source of uncertainty for global energy markets. President Donald Trump was briefed on Thursday by the top U.S. military commander on military options involving Iran. The same day, two tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.
One vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile while completing an outbound transit, while another was approached by a small boat that attached two explosive devices to its hull. Oil movements through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to approximately 10 million barrels per day, but the physical crude market remains tight. Elevated shipping costs, strong premiums for prompt crude deliveries and continued uncertainty over maritime security are preventing a broader easing of supply pressures.
The continued disruptions have prompted analysts to revise their price expectations upward. A Reuters survey conducted in October projects that Brent crude will average $92.88 per barrel in 2026, up from last month's forecast of $89.05. WTI is now expected to average $86.60 per barrel, compared with the previous estimate of $83.90.
The review notes that the Middle East conflict pushed Brent crude as high as $126.41 per barrel in April. Higher prices are also beginning to affect global consumption. HSBC estimates that disruptions contributed to approximately 5 million barrels per day of demand losses during the second quarter, primarily in lower-income countries.
However, weaker consumption has not been sufficient to offset the supply shortage. Analysts expect a global oil market deficit of approximately 2.7 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter of 2026. OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current approach, with representatives from seven core member countries scheduled to meet on Sunday.
Expectations are that December production targets will remain unchanged, and analysts generally anticipate limited policy adjustments until there is greater clarity on the Middle East conflict. Outside the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to create additional risks for energy supplies. Russia carried out a large-scale overnight attack targeting Ukrainian military-industrial facilities, energy infrastructure and port operations, and Russian officials reported intercepting more than 1,200 Ukrainian drones overnight, the highest daily total reported.
Ukraine struck a Russian refinery with processing capacity of approximately 170,000 barrels per day, the first confirmed strike on a Russian fuel-processing facility in roughly two weeks. Russia is also extending its diesel export ban through the end of 2026, although certain companies will be permitted to export fuel under a quota system intended to fulfill new export commitments to the United States. November quotas are expected to reach 2 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 500,000 barrels per day, quadrupling October levels.
In the United States, Valero Energy announced an agreement to acquire LyondellBasell's idled Houston refinery for $320.5 million, with plans to initially restart 165,000 barrels per day of light sweet crude processing capacity by the end of 2027. The refinery previously had total processing capacity of approximately 289,000 barrels per day before LyondellBasell shut down operations in March 2025 as part of its exit from the refining business. The acquisition also includes 13.5 million barrels of storage capacity, marine docks, rail loading facilities and truck racks.
Valero expects the transaction to strengthen its refining network by improving access to intermediate feedstocks and reducing dependence on third-party suppliers. Venezuela is also attracting attention following the announcement of a major oil development agreement involving North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP). President Trump has described the arrangement as the largest oil deal in history, covering 17 Venezuelan oilfields with approximately 64 billion barrels of reported reserves.
Under the agreement, the United States receives a 35% ownership stake in NABEP's corporate parent and the right to purchase 20% of production at cost. In the United States, third-quarter gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%, exceeding expectations, while consumer spending increased 3.8%. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.32% in September, bringing the annual increase to 3.12%.
In Canada, the economy recorded no growth in August for the second consecutive month, falling short of expectations for a 0.2% increase. Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate suggests the economy contracted another 0.1% in September, which would put third-quarter annualized growth at approximately 1.3%, below the Bank of Canada's 2% projection. In the week's price review, crude prices declined during the first half of the week before recovering in the final two sessions.
After opening at $102.61 on Monday, prices slipped to $101.29 on Tuesday and reached a weekly low of $100.17 on Wednesday, before climbing to $101.96 on Thursday and $102.80 on Friday. Overall, crude prices rose by $0.19 per barrel, an approximate 0.2% gain for the week. Diesel prices faced downward pressure for most of the week, starting at $4.9869 on Monday and opening at $4.7296 on Friday, a decline of $0.2573 per gallon or approximately 5.2% for the week.
Gasoline prices showed mixed movement, with a weekly low of $3.1412 on Wednesday and a weekly high of $3.2187 on Friday, ending the week up by just $0.0039 per gallon, or approximately 0.1%. Energy markets continue to reflect a combination of immediate supply concerns and longer-term uncertainty. Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and restrictions on diesel exports are keeping pressure on global supplies.
New refining investment in the United States and proposed production expansion in Venezuela could eventually add capacity, although neither offers an immediate solution to current market tightness. With analysts forecasting a significant supply deficit through the fourth quarter, developments involving shipping security, infrastructure operations and production policy will remain key drivers of crude oil and refined fuel prices. Source: Mansfield Energy, 'Week in Review – Middle East Disruptions Push Oil Forecasts Higher While Demand Weakens', published October 30, 2026 (author Cassia Paz).
The review cites a Reuters survey, HSBC estimates, Statistics Canada data and Bank of Canada projections.
Source: mansfield.energy