FM

Cleveland-Cliffs Reports $612 Million Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA, Highest in Three Years, and Targets 2.5x Leverage by Q2 2027

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 19, 2026, with revenues of $5.6 billion, shipments of 4.2 million net tons and Adjusted EBITDA of $612 million, according to the company's earnings presentation published on its website (clevelandcliffs.com). The company described the quarter's Adjusted EBITDA and revenues as the highest in three years. Adjusted EBITDA improved by $326 million from $286 million in the second quarter of 2026 and by $469 million from $143 million in the third quarter of 2025.

The company reported net income of $165 million for the quarter and liquidity of $3.2 billion as of September 30, 2026. The company said its average selling price was $53 per net ton higher than in the prior quarter, reaching $1,177 per net ton in the trend data shown in the presentation, while unit costs were reduced by $17 per ton quarter-over-quarter. Shipments increased by 125,000 net tons from the second quarter, marking the highest total since the second quarter of 2025 and the third consecutive quarter above 4 million net tons.

Automotive volume rose again quarter-over-quarter and reached its highest level since the third quarter of 2023. By product, hot-rolled steel accounted for 46% of shipments in the third quarter, followed by coated products at 31%, cold-rolled at 15%, and stainless and electrical and plate at 4% each. By end market, the company reported revenue shares of 28% for direct automotive, 34% for distributors and converters, 28% for infrastructure and manufacturing, and 10% for steel producers.

The contract mix for 2026 was 43% fixed price, 23% U.S. index-linked with a one-month lag, 7% U.S. index-linked with a one-quarter lag, 12% U.S. spot and 15% Stelco spot. On market conditions, the company cited stronger domestic steel demand, with data center and energy tube as specific bright spots, and said reduced import competitiveness has supported demand for domestically produced steel. It attributed support for the U.S.

HRC price to increased domestic demand, higher global steel costs and lower imports. The presentation also noted that oil and gas prices remain elevated, key global shipping routes are still disrupted, and the war with Iran and other global tensions have further disrupted the global steel industry. Fastmarkets pricing as of October 15, 2026, cited in the presentation, showed U.S.

HRC at $1,259 per net ton and Canadian HRC at $1,226 per net ton. On trade, the company cited USITC data showing that total U.S. flat-rolled steel imports (HRC, CRC and coated) averaged about 750,000 net tons per month in 2024, 465,000 in 2025 and 352,000 in the 2026 year-to-date average through July, a 53% decline versus 2024. Section 232 tariffs were reinstated during this period.

Monthly U.S. imports of cars and light trucks averaged 700,000 units in 2024, 564,000 in 2025 and 527,000 in the 2026 year-to-date average, a 25% decline. In the AISI-sourced trade table, imports from Canada fell 31% in 2025 to 4,524 thousand net tons, from Brazil 8% to 4,126, from Mexico 20% to 2,823, and from South Korea 5% to 2,662. The table lists the current tariff status of each of the ten largest importing countries shown as a 50% tariff.

Imports from Germany and Taiwan rose in 2025, by 5% and 8% respectively. On the balance sheet, the company set a leverage target of 2.5x net debt to trailing twelve-month Adjusted EBITDA and said it is committed to directing 100% of cash flow to debt repayment, with debt reduction as its top priority. It reported zero note maturities from 2026 through 2028, a clear path to reach the leverage target by the end of the second quarter of 2027, and an intention to maintain liquidity above $2.0 billion.

The company also reported a $4.1 billion reduction in net pension and OPEB liabilities since the AM USA acquisition, from $4,207 million in 2020 to $110 million currently. It estimated 2026 capital expenditures at $700 million, compared with $561 million in 2025. The presentation included an illustrative bridge to 2027.

It started from the third-quarter Adjusted EBITDA annualized at approximately $2,450 million and added approximately $350 million from lower discounts and increased extras on index-linked contracts, $850 million from fixed-price contract improvement, and $1,100 million from prevailing price forecasts, offset by a $250 million cost impact. This yields an estimated 2027 Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $4,500 million. After approximately $1,800 million for interest expense, capital expenditures and pension and OPEB payments, the company estimated 2027 free cash flow of approximately $2,700 million.

The company noted that prevailing price forecasts reflect the current futures curve and current Canadian order book, and that the bridge is illustrative. On investments, the company said the re-scoped Middletown Works modernization project, which includes blast furnace upgrades, material handling infrastructure and AI-enabled process controls, is supported by a $500 million Department of Energy award, is expected to be completed in 2030 and will preserve 2,300 jobs. The Butler Works grain-oriented electrical steel expansion represents a $200 million investment supported by a $75 million Department of Energy award, is expected to increase production volume by up to 25%, and has moved from mid-2027 to early 2028 for completion.

The company also listed projects at Burns Harbor, including a blast furnace reline and a coke plant rebuild, and a blast furnace stove investment at Lake Erie Works. On asset sales, the company said non-EBITDA-contributing assets with a total value of approximately $500 million are under contract or have closed, with approximately $130 million received to date. It said 100% of net cash proceeds are expected to be used to repay debt, and that it has more than 1 GW of powered land currently idled.

The presentation includes standard forward-looking statement disclaimers that reference risks including Section 232 and other trade actions, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the Stelco acquisition, the memorandum of understanding with POSCO, and volatility in steel, scrap and iron ore prices. Sources: Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings Presentation, October 19, 2026 (clevelandcliffs.com). Pricing data as cited in the presentation from Fastmarkets, as of October 15, 2026.

Import data as cited from USITC (year-to-date through July 2026) and AISI.

Source: clevelandcliffs.com

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