Copper held near US$14,400 per tonne in late October as metals traders gathered in London for LME Week (19–23 October), according to the International Copper Association Australia (ICAA) Copper Weekly Brief of 22 October 2026 (https://copper.com.au/news/mining/copper-weekly-brief-22-october-2026). The brief puts the LME three-month contract at US$14,357 per tonne on the 20 October settlement, and at around US$14,364 per tonne late on 21 October, down 0.4% on the day and roughly 3.4% below the record of US$14,875 per tonne set on 10 September. The LME cash price was US$14,540 per tonne on 20 October.
On COMEX, copper settled at US$6.56 per pound, about US$14.46 per kilogram, on 21 October, little changed over the week. The brief says copper is up about 17% so far this year. The brief reports that COMEX has slipped below LME, trading around US$80 per tonne under LME cash.
At the end of July, COMEX carried a premium of about US$420 per tonne, linked to the threat of US tariffs. Citing calculations by John Gross of The Copper Journal, as reproduced in the ICAA brief, the October average has shifted to an LME premium, after a COMEX premium in June. The brief links this shift to a tariff decision that has stalled and to more than 700,000 tonnes held in COMEX warehouses, which it describes as leaving the US market well supplied and the tariff premium largely eroded.
These are the brief’s conclusions, not independently confirmed market data. Stock levels are rising. According to the brief, LME available stocks reached a two-month high of 147,450 tonnes on 20 October, after 8,225 tonnes moved into US warehouses.
COMEX holds about 718,000 tonnes, and SHFE stocks have risen to about 74,000 tonnes from 58,744 tonnes in early October. The brief notes that LME cash still trades about US$180 per tonne above three-month, which it reads as a sign that prompt metal remains tight even as headline inventories grow. On 15 October, a sell-off in technology stocks briefly pushed three-month copper to US$14,256 per tonne, a near two-week low, before a weaker dollar helped prices recover.
On the supply side, the brief reports that workers at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine ended a strike that began on 7 October, a week after Escondida’s supervisors approved a new contract. At LME Week, the LME Metals Seminar in London voted copper the industrial metal with the best price outlook, according to the brief. Goldman Sachs used the week to raise its year-end target.
Macquarie’s Alice Fox, quoted in the brief, said copper is “way above where it ought to be given global stocks.” The brief also summarises several LME announcements: Owensboro, Kentucky has been listed as a Good Delivery Point for copper, with new warehouses approved there and in New Orleans; from 1 December, warehouses must comply with an updated Warehouse Agreement; and LME copper will require a Certificate of Analysis and an indelible cast reference for traceability. On sustainability, CPAL’s first sustainable copper assessment found buyers would pay no premium above the usual US$130–180 per tonne Rotterdam premium, according to the brief. Low-carbon producers such as Montanwerke Brixlegg, as cited there, consider the definition too broad.
Separately, Reuters reported on 14 October that Aurubis had set a 2027 European premium of US$347 per tonne (https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-10-14/aurubis-raises-2027-european-copper-premium-record-347-ton-sources-say), and the brief describes producers as offering record premiums for next year’s physical deliveries. The refined copper tariff remains undecided. Reuters reported in September that the White House had stalled the decision over affordability concerns (https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-09-10/white-house-copper-tariff-plan-stalls-amid-affordability-concerns).
The ICAA brief suggests that, given the US midterm elections on 3 November, a ruling could wait until after the vote. This is an inference drawn from that reporting, not a confirmed timetable. Deutsche Bank’s Daniel Ghali, as cited in the brief, argues that the tariff threat reflects a wider national-security shift on critical minerals, and that freight costs would discourage large US re-exports even without a tariff.
The US Federal Open Market Committee meets on 28 October. The brief notes that the Fed raised rates in September to 3.75–4.00% and that the latest CPI print was 3.7%. In the brief’s view, a further hike would strengthen the dollar and raise the cost of carrying US stockpiles.
In China, the brief says buyers are cautious at current prices, although the Yangshan import premium touched a four-year high of US$135 per tonne last week. It identifies the trend in SHFE stocks after Golden Week as a key indicator to watch. For Europe, the brief attributes record producer premiums to thin regional supply after heavy shipments to the US.
For Australia, the brief states that copper is worth about A$20,400 per tonne in local terms and notes that, with AASB S2 now in force, producers’ emissions data will be scrutinised alongside their earnings. Banks are raising price targets even as some physical indicators soften. According to the brief, Goldman Sachs now sees an ex-US refined deficit of 950 kt in 2026 and 220 kt in 2027, with an end-2026 target of US$14,700 per tonne and a 2027 average of US$15,400 per tonne.
Goldman also argues that the median mine takes more than 16 years from discovery to first production, so higher prices cannot quickly add new supply, as reported by ANI on 21 October (https://aninews.in/news/business/copper-supply-crunch-could-push-prices-higher-as-new-mines-take-over-16-years-to-develop-goldman-sachs20261021081812/). Morgan Stanley, as cited in the brief, sees US stockpiling as the swing factor and forecasts a Q4 price of US$14,250 per tonne. Macquarie, BMO and BMI, according to the brief, expect a 2026 average of about US$13,500–13,600 per tonne.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) still expects refined surpluses of 104 kt in 2026 and 368 kt in 2027, and offers no price forecast. Wood Mackenzie, in its August 2026 review, sees a slight surplus in 2026. The ICAA brief’s own outlook expects copper to trade within a US$14,200–14,900 per tonne range into November, with the 28 October FOMC decision and any US tariff announcement as the likely triggers for a break.
The ICAA identifies four signals to monitor: further LME stock builds, which would test the backwardation; whether the Yangshan premium holds as SHFE stocks rise; 2027 treatment and refining charges, which start from a 2026 benchmark of zero; and the timing of the tariff decision.
Source: copper.com.au