Copper is testing its April support trendline, even as global copper mine supply fell 1.1% in the first half of 2026, according to a Beincrypto analysis published on Mitrade. The metal is up more than 15% this year, but the source notes that the shortage sits in ore rather than in finished metal, which complicates the bullish case. Outages at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in Congo erased about 600,000 tonnes of expected 2026 output, according to Sprott, equal to roughly 2.5% of global mine supply.
Morgan Stanley now sees mine supply flat or slightly lower this year in its revised outlook, which would mark the first annual decline since 2017. The source also cites an S&P Global study finding that bringing a discovery into production takes 17 years on average. The tightness is already visible in ore pricing.
Local reports cited by the article, attributed to the Rio Times, show that Antofagasta sold Centinela ore at a treatment charge of minus $310 per tonne. In effect, the miner paid the buyer. Refined metal, however, is not yet scarce.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) data cited in the article show a refined surplus of 131,000 tonnes in the first half, as smelters lean on scrap. Artificial intelligence (AI) data centers are among the most exposed buyers. According to estimates from Industrial Info Resources, a 1-gigawatt AI campus can need up to 50,000 tonnes of copper.
The article notes that copper accounts for under 0.5% of a data center's budget, so cost is a minor issue, while delays in transformers and cables pose the bigger risk. The long-term picture also looks tighter. S&P Global projects 2040 demand at 42 million tonnes, leaving supply roughly 10 million tonnes short.
In the nearer term, Comex warehouse stocks hit a record near 700,000 tonnes in September, and traders are front-running a proposed 15% tariff on refined imports from 2027. Technically, the article reports that copper is testing its ascending support line for the fifth time. The line held on four earlier tests in June, July, September and early October.
Price also sits just below a horizontal resistance zone near $6.70 per pound, which has capped rallies since May. A confirmed breakout above that zone could open a move toward $6.95, the record high cited in the source. However, highs have been falling since that record, squeezing price into the trendline.
If support breaks, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $6.31 may act as the next floor. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 50, a neutral reading that favors neither bulls nor bears, according to the analysis. The article also compares copper with Bitcoin.
Copper set a record close in August alongside gains in gold and Bitcoin during the debasement trade rally, but the two have since diverged. Copper is up about 33% year-over-year, while Bitcoin's spot price sits near $81,700, roughly 25% lower. The source adds that miners pivoting toward AI compete with the broader market for copper-heavy transformers and cabling.
Per the analysis, a break below the April trendline would test whether investors still treat copper as a hard-asset hedge. Source: Beincrypto analysis published on Mitrade, citing Sprott, Morgan Stanley, S&P Global, the Rio Times, the International Copper Study Group, Industrial Info Resources and TradingView chart data.
Source: mitrade.com