Goldman Sachs says the average global freight rate to transport oil has surged to $20 per barrel from $3 per barrel last year, as the Iran war and the Hormuz crisis have created a shipping crisis that is unlikely to end soon. The findings come from a bank note reported by Oilprice.com on October 21, 2026. Goldman's analysts expect oil shipping rates to remain elevated in the near term, with no end in sight to the Middle East crisis.
The surge in freight costs poses an upside risk to the bank's current baseline forecast of $90 per barrel for Brent crude at the end of this year. In the note, as carried by Bloomberg, the commodity analysts wrote: “Higher freight rates for longer pose some upside risk to our Brent forecast, along with the risks of more intense shipping attacks, damage to oil infrastructure, and a stickier geopolitical risk premium.” Average shipping costs have risen above $20 per barrel, and rates on Middle East routes have surged to $35 per barrel, the investment bank said, according to a report cited by Zawya. Goldman attributes the rise in average freight costs to three components: an extra $7 per barrel war-risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz, $4 per barrel due to higher fuel costs, and $4 per barrel for ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
These STS transfers are tying up many tankers in a shuttle-shipping service, reducing vessel availability for other oil trade routes. Supertanker rates topped $1.4 million per day on the Gulf to East Asia route in early October, a record high, according to Oilprice.com. The Iran war has reshuffled trade routes and patterns and tied up more tankers in inefficient and lengthy voyages.
Inefficient oil loadings in the Middle East and a very tight supertanker market have had a ripple effect on smaller vessels, with demand and daily rates for Aframax and Suezmax tankers also surging amid a shortage of supertankers. Source: Oilprice.com, article by Tsvetana Paraskova, October 21, 2026, citing a Goldman Sachs commodity note as carried by Bloomberg, and a report cited by Zawya.
Source: oilprice.com