Indonesia reset its nickel reference price on 1 November, and market participants are now focused on the 15 November deadline for 2027 production quota applications. According to SMM, which reported the figure, Indonesia's energy ministry (ESDM) published the nickel reference price (HMA) for the first period of November at $15,478.67 a tonne, down $369, or 2.33%, from the prior period. A SEAIEA note dated 25 October had flagged this reset alongside possible nickel cuts and the 15 November deadline, as cited in the Novaex Research analysis.
The prospect of output cuts is separate from the reset and has not been confirmed. Novaex Research reports that Indonesian miners have applied for more than 500 million tonnes of 2027 ore, roughly double the 2026 cap. The same source says four Chinese producers in Indonesia met on 20 October to discuss halving output.
No cut has been confirmed by an official announcement. Novaex Research also reports that LME nickel traded at $14,885 a tonne on 15 October, its lowest cash price of 2026, and that LME stocks stood at 278,814 tonnes on 28 October. The source treats Indonesia as a supply factor to monitor rather than a directional signal.
According to the Novaex analysis, a reference price change can reach a nickel exposure through three separate lines rather than one. The first is flat price, meaning the unhedged tonnes multiplied by the LME price. The second is basis, the gap between a physical index and LME on tonnes that have been hedged.
The third is quotation-period timing, the gap between when physical prices are set and when a hedge was executed. The source argues that a reference price feeding smelter costs may affect the basis spread before it appears in LME quotes. This is the author's interpretation rather than a measured result.
The source cites Yuze Metal, a Shanghai stainless steel supplier, which describes the spread between Indonesian nickel pig iron (NPI) offers and the LME quote as a discount meter. Indonesian NPI prices are assessed on their own physical benchmarks rather than directly off LME. On the regulatory front, RKAB is the annual production quota that each Indonesian miner must have approved.
Applications close on 15 November. The Novaex analysis states that no official, dated November announcement of the 2027 quota had been verified at the time of writing. The source notes that 2026 quotas were issued on 10 February, which it uses as a reference point for timing, but this is not a confirmed date for 2027.
The source outlines scenarios rather than forecasts. Approvals near or below the 2026 cap, combined with actual output cuts, would point to tighter supply. Approvals well above the 2026 cap would support a surplus outlook.
If no quota news emerges before year-end, the decision could fall in the first quarter, according to the source's reading of last year's timetable. A note of caution: this article is based on a single research piece published on a commercial platform, which also promotes its own pricing and analytics products. The source's illustrative worked example uses hypothetical positions and an assumed LME price, and those figures are not market data.
The framework described is an analytical method, not an investment recommendation. Readers should verify the HMA figure against ESDM publications, LME settlement data and independent market reports, and should confirm the status of the RKAB 2027 process with Indonesian government sources before drawing conclusions.
Source: novaex.ai