South Africa's state-owned science council Mintek has published its Shareholder's Compact for 2026/27, a performance agreement between its Board, acting as Accounting Authority, and the Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, Gwede Mantashe, acting as Executive Authority. According to the document, the agreement is effective from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027, derives its goals from the Mineral Technology Act No. 30 of 1989, and is aligned with the Strategic Plan of the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) and with the National Development Plan (NDP).
The Compact also covers the medium-term period 2026/27 to 2028/29. On the financial side, the Compact plans total income of R784 million for 2026/27, with the state grant contributing 37% of the total budget. The summarised budget projects a surplus of R1.62 million in 2026/27, rising to R3.26 million in 2028/29, although the document states that this surplus depends on the successful generation of commercial revenue.
Salary costs represent 47% of total expenditure. The starting cost-basis budget for the state grant allocation (the Science Vote) is R328 million for the 2026/27 financial year. The document also records a further 4% reduction in the grant during 2026/27, amounting to R12.2 million, on top of a 9.2% (R96.2 million) reduction that began in the 2024/25 financial year.
Capital expenditure is expected to average about R60 million per year over the medium term, with 40% funded from the state grant and the balance from reserves. The Compact's external analysis describes a divergent commodity landscape. Gold, silver, copper and certain platinum group metals (PGMs) have shown resilience or price recovery, while several bulk commodities have come under pressure.
Iron ore prices fell from a record of $220/t in 2021 to between $90 and $110/t in 2025, according to the document. Copper reached $10,855/t in October 2025, up 23% year to date, as supply concerns outweighed weak demand in major industrial economies, according to the World Bank (2025). The World Bank also forecast that commodity prices, excluding gold and silver, would decline by 12% in 2025 and by a further 5% in 2026.
In the PGM segment, the Compact cites Johnson Matthey and SFA Oxford for price data and outlook. Platinum reached $1,550/oz by June 2025, and SFA Oxford forecasts average platinum prices of $1,550 to $1,650/oz and palladium prices of $1,280 to $1,380/oz in 2026. Rhodium rose to about $18,000/oz in early 2025 before retreating to $7,175/oz in September 2025.
South Africa's PGM production reached 256.5t in 2024, 4.3% below pre-COVID levels. Gold breached $4,000/oz in October 2025 and was up 53% year to date in USD terms, according to the World Gold Council (2025). JP Morgan, cited in the document, expects gold to exceed $4,500/oz in the first half of 2026 and $5,000/oz in the second half.
For bulk commodities, the document reports that South Africa's iron ore production reached 62.8Mt in 2024, with approximately 61.2Mt exported, 54.6% of which went to China. Coal exports reached 71Mt in 2024, while the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) has a capacity of 91Mt. Both sectors remain constrained by rail and port bottlenecks.
The Compact also notes that the mining sector has contracted in eight of the last 13 quarters, according to the Minerals Council South Africa, and that mining accounts for roughly 6% of GDP and close to 45% of merchandise exports. The Compact frames Mintek's strategic role around value addition and the national Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy. It describes South Africa as holding the world's largest chrome ore resources, while its ferrochrome smelters face electricity costs, unreliable supply, logistics constraints and competition from cheaper imports, particularly from China.
The document states that many smelters are idle or operating at a loss, and identifies energy-efficient smelting and process optimisation as priorities for Mintek. Other stated priorities include the recovery of rare earth elements (REEs) from coal discards and fly ash, the development of battery precursor materials, the recycling of LFP batteries, and fuel cell research. The performance targets for 2026/27 include 52 refereed journal papers, 10 new products, services, prototypes, processes or models demonstrated or validated, five certified reference materials, and R410.7 million in income from the sale of products and services, royalties and licences.
For the Derelict and Ownerless mine rehabilitation programme, the document notes that 47 sites have been rehabilitated to date and that a contract covering 2025 to 2028, with an allocated value of approximately R418 million, is in place. The Compact's strategic risk register lists geopolitical risk and inadequate investment in RDI infrastructure among the risks rated high, alongside financial sustainability and the protection of intellectual property. Source: Mintek, Shareholder's Compact 2026/27 (Shareholder Performance Agreement, Agreed Principles), mintek.co.za.
Commodity figures are attributed in the document to the IMF, World Bank, BHP, Johnson Matthey, SFA Oxford, World Gold Council, JP Morgan, Minerals Council South Africa and Statistics South Africa, and are reported here as cited by Mintek.
Source: mintek.co.za