Major financial institutions are divided on crude oil price trajectories following OPEC+ countries' decision to maintain September production levels for November 2026, with forecasts ranging from bullish to bearish depending on assumptions about Middle Eastern supply disruptions and inventory replenishment challenges. Goldman Sachs projects a more optimistic scenario, forecasting Brent crude could decline to $85 per barrel by the end of 2026 and further to $80 in 2027. According to Daan Struyven, Goldman's co-head of global commodities research, the recovery in disrupted Middle Eastern exports rather than fresh production increases will drive prices downward.
"The remarkable adaptation of both Mideast supply and China import demand supports our base case that Brent prices moderate to $85/bbl by year-end and to $80 in 2027," Struyven stated. However, Goldman's analysis notes a critical distinction between crude oil and refined product availability. While estimated crude exports have recovered to above 2025 average levels, estimated refined product exports including diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel remain below 50% of 2025 averages.
Additionally, Middle Eastern liquefied natural gas supplies are recovering more slowly than oil, indicating that cheaper crude may not translate to broader energy market relief. Bank of America's baseline assumptions also point toward lower prices in 2027, though the bank models continuing intermittent flows through the Strait of Hormuz as regional skirmishes persist. BofA forecasts Brent averaging $95 per barrel for the second half of 2026 and declining to $80 per barrel in 2027, with prices falling towards $75 by December 2027.
For West Texas Intermediate, BofA models annual averages of $87.60 in 2026, $74 in 2027, and $67 in 2028. Crédit Agricole takes a more cautious stance, placing greater emphasis on the difficulty of replenishing depleted commercial and strategic reserves while meeting global demand. The bank forecasts relatively high oil prices averaging between $90 to $95 per barrel quarterly for the end of 2026 and throughout 2027.
Crédit Agricole's analysis highlights that even assuming a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to 50% of pre-disruption traffic levels, oil supply cannot simultaneously restore demand to pre-attack levels and replenish inventories. The persistent shortage of refined fuels including diesel and kerosene further complicates the outlook according to Crédit Agricole. The bank warns that without a lasting political resolution in the Middle East or Europe, markets are expected to remain tight through 2027.
Goldman Sachs acknowledges downside risks to its forecasting model, noting concerns about potential escalation that could damage additional energy infrastructure and cause significant upside pressure on prices. The divergence between analyst forecasts reflects fundamental disagreement about the pace and completeness of supply recovery in the region.
Source: exchangerates.org.uk