Brent crude futures for January delivery rose 1.31% to $99.58 a barrel on November 6, 2026, after briefly trading above $100, according to Crux Investor. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 0.95% to $91.38. The rebound followed a sharp selloff in which Brent fell 8% on November 4 to a two-month low, after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, raising expectations of US-Iran de-escalation.
Despite the rebound, Brent remained on track for a 12% weekly loss, although the report notes that this comparison spans the October 30 expiry of the December contract. Iran reported three more tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, while UK Maritime Trade Operations data show vessel attacks nearing record levels. These incidents are supporting oil prices despite a reduced war premium.
Supply indicators point in mixed directions. Gulf crude and condensate exports averaged 14 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, reaching 86% of pre-war levels. J.P.
Morgan estimates a global oil surplus of 1.4 million bpd, while Goldman Sachs assesses the market as broadly balanced rather than in surplus. Brent swaps for this week's cargoes trade at their steepest discount to next week's since July, a pattern that signals ample near-term supply. Goldman Sachs estimates that global visible oil inventories remained unchanged in September and October and stand 483 million barrels below March 1 levels.
Gulf refined product exports remain just above half of normal levels, while US commercial crude inventories are 4% below their five-year average. At J.P. Morgan's estimated October surplus rate, closing the inventory gap would take about 345 days, extending into October 2027 if the surplus holds.
Brent futures from January 2027 remain in backwardation, with nearer contracts priced above later deliveries. Tim Waterer, Chief Analyst at KCM, said oil prices are likely to remain supported on dips until Gulf shipping becomes safer and cheaper. Adi Imsirovic, a veteran oil trader, said Brent futures could follow oil swaps into contango, as pricing shifts typically begin in physical markets.
If later contracts trade above nearer ones, funds rolling front-month positions would face monthly costs, while 2027 Brent futures would require fewer rolls and could reduce those costs. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), when physical cargoes last traded at comparable discounts in July, Brent spot prices averaged $83.76 a barrel, compared with $123.93 in October. Rapidan Energy Group estimates an 80% chance of renewed US-Iran fighting, while Iran reportedly sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar.
Crux Investor notes that de-escalation expectations could trigger another crude selloff. The midterm selloff reduced oil's war premium, but depleted inventories and continued Hormuz attacks could support prices. Sustained surpluses, however, could rebuild inventories and reduce the price impact of future tanker attacks.
According to the analysis, tracking inventory recovery, Brent futures pricing and whether January Brent settles below February on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) before its November 30 expiry would help indicate whether near-term scarcity is easing. Sources: Crux Investor (Ryan Charles, November 6, 2026), citing J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Rapidan Energy Group, UK Maritime Trade Operations, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and KCM.
Source: cruxinvestor.com