The copper project pipeline has underperformed for years, and CRU analyst Piers Montgomery asks in a 27 October 2026 commentary whether the supply side is finally responding to rising demand. CRU classifies projects as either 'probable' or 'possible' in its gateway methodology. According to CRU's regular tracking of final investment decisions (FID), approvals have been sufficient to bridge the supply gap in only three years of the last decade.
CRU's most recent Copper Long Term Market Outlook (CLTMO) noted that nine projects with the capacity to add 826 kt/y of copper were sanctioned in the preceding 12 months. CRU expects the quantum of new tonnes required to rise to 8.17 Mt by 2036. The commentary highlights Tia Maria in Peru, which had become symbolic of the ESG hurdles facing the industry, and the approval of MARA under Argentina's Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI) announced in October 2026.
CRU sees the MARA approval as further evidence that Tier 1 projects can advance. However, CRU also flags reasons for caution. The weighted-average lag between FID and first production has increased to three and a half years, and time spent in permitting, engineering and procurement (PEP) has risen by 55%, according to CRU's April 2025 CLTMO.
Several key projects have recently been delayed. The start date for El Teniente New Mining Level in Chile has been pushed back to 2027 from 2025, while Grasberg Kucing Liar in Indonesia has moved to 2030 from 2029. CRU also notes that commissioning of the Baimskaya project in Russia, above the Arctic Circle, carries elevated delivery risk because of its extensive infrastructure requirements, including a new port and four purpose-built floating 106 MWe nuclear power units.
Under the heading 'Record prices are not a boon for project economics... yet', CRU notes that the pipeline of 239 probable and possible projects includes only 75 projects that were already present in 2016. Several companies are reconsidering development options in major mining districts through collaborations, which may allow more efficient mining of ore bodies (Andina/Los Bronces), shared infrastructure (Collahuasi/Quebrada Blanca) or lower corporate and supply chain costs (Copper World/Cactus). CRU points out that average capital intensity has risen by 38% in real terms since the start of the decade.
Steep rises in copper prices and by-product credits have led some owners to recommission studies, but in most cases higher top-line revenue projections have been offset by higher capital expenditure and/or operating costs. As a result, internal rates of return have generally not reached levels sufficient to attract capital, although CRU suggests that current copper prices could signal a paradigm shift. The Jervois Range project in Australia's Northern Territory, which has been in CRU's pipeline for over a decade, is cited as an example: its owner KGL Resources completed an AU$300 M equity raise in July and August, and together with a streaming deal with Wheaton Precious Metals, this fully funds construction of the 30 kt/y project.
CRU also warns about the ownership profile of the pipeline. Western companies hold over 11.7 Mt of uncommitted copper but added only 636 kt/y of incremental production between 2007 and 2025, the weakest delivery record among the cohorts analysed. Chinese companies achieved a compound annual growth rate of 13% over the same period but collectively own only 11% of tonnes in the 2026 pipeline.
CRU notes this may understate their influence, given a counter-cyclical strategy, such as CMOC's purchase of a majority stake in Tenke Fungurume in the DRC during the 2016 downturn. Despite positive developments at smaller sites, including Jervois Range, Havieron, Mount Lyell, Sulphur Springs in Australia and Nussir in Norway, CRU has not seen any Tier 1 project achieve a positive FID so far in 2026. Reko Diq in Pakistan, previously among the projects best positioned to enter production before the end of the decade, now faces an uncertain future.
Its owner Barrick said in April that it was slowing development activity and extending a review, and warned of significant increases to capex estimates of $5.6-6 bn for Phase 1 and $3.3-3.6 bn for Phase 2. CRU states that only two Tier 1 greenfield projects from the pipeline could add copper supply before 2030, Santa Cruz and Copper World, both in the United States. Projects that reached FID this year have collectively totalled only about 150 kt/y, which CRU says makes it difficult to argue that pipeline activity has accelerated.
CRU nonetheless believes conditions are ripe for change. Over the last 24 months, CRU has added more than 4 Mt of potential copper to its pipeline, much of it in the third and fourth quartiles of the industry cost curve. Using a year-to-date average copper price of $13,444/t, CRU calculates that 144 copper mine projects are theoretically viable, nearly double the number needed to fill the supply gap.
Existing miners are generating significant free cash flow, and elevated valuations for juniors and explorers make it easier to raise capital for development studies. Government schemes such as RIGI in Argentina and Project Vault in the United States are also seen as supportive of the copper industry, as governments become more aware of competition for capital between jurisdictions and the need for supply chain resilience. CRU concludes that the supply side now has money, options and incentives, and that the picture could look very different by this time next year.
Source: CRU Group, 'Activity in copper project pipeline finally accelerating?', by Piers Montgomery, 27 October 2026 (crugroup.com, Thought Leadership). Cited CRU publications include the Copper Long Term Market Outlook (April 2025 and most recent edition) and the Copper Market Outlook.
Source: crugroup.com