Indonesian officials signaled in early November that next year's nickel ore quotas may be cut more aggressively than this year's, leaving the two countries that dominate battery-metal supply operating output under government quotas. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has capped cobalt exports at 96,600 metric tons a year for 2026 and 2027, following the end of a months-long export ban in October 2025. For buyers of battery cells, cathode materials and stainless steel, supply planning has become a question of timing.
How much nickel and cobalt reaches the market next year depends on decisions in Jakarta and Kinshasa as much as on what mines can produce. Cecep Mochammad Yasin, director of mineral business development at Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, said reductions in the 2027 quotas may go further than those made for 2026. He also said the quotas would reflect the optimal operating capacity of domestic smelters, not only their raw material needs, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), which reported his remarks.
No 2027 figure has been announced. The signal drew support elsewhere in the government. Septian Hario Seto, a member of Indonesia's National Economic Council, backed using the annual work plans, known as RKAB, to cut nickel output.
He argued that rising Indonesian production had added to global oversupply and pushed prices down, SMM reported from a November 3 industry convention. The 2026 quota has already moved considerably. It was first set at 260 million to 270 million metric tons of ore, about a third below the 379 million tons approved for 2025, according to Kontan.
In October, Director General Tri Winarno approved a revised 2026 quota, which SMM put at about 290 million tons at the time. SMM's November 4 reports put the revised allocation at 295 million to 300 million wet metric tons, giving smelters more ore late in the year than the first allocation allowed. Congo's Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances' Markets (ARECOMS) set the cobalt export limit at 96,600 tons a year from 2026.
This consists of an 87,000-ton base allocation and a 9,600-ton strategic export allocation reserved for ARECOMS, and the framework allows the figures to be adjusted, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Exporters must also prepay a 10% royalty before shipments clear customs, according to Mining Technology. Under the rules, unused monthly allocations are forfeited to the strategic quota, which ARECOMS said would serve projects of national importance, according to MarketScreener.
Producer results show the quota operating alongside other factors. In its third-quarter production report published October 29, Glencore said its own-sourced cobalt output for January through September fell 52% to 13,700 tons from 28,500 tons in the same period of 2025. The company attributed the decline to “the ongoing DRC cobalt export quota regime and a continued focus on copper production.” Glencore did not say how much of the decline came from each factor.
It also said some cobalt is now being retained in solution rather than processed into saleable hydroxide, with its value expected to be realized as export regulations evolve. Cobalt prices nevertheless fell during the third quarter as DRC-origin shipments increased and downstream buying remained weak, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Cobalt hydroxide delivered to Asia fell 31% over the quarter to $17.25 per pound, and Chinese cobalt sulphate fell nearly 30%, according to the firm's third-quarter cobalt price review. “The market fell into a stalemate, with sellers unwilling to transact below $20.00/lb,” wrote George Ingall, the firm's senior price analyst.
Quota changes reach buyers through their suppliers' contracts. When ore or hydroxide availability shifts because of a government decision, the central question for cathode and cell makers is whether they can keep delivering at the prices they promised and how much of the change they can pass through to customers. The exposure extends beyond raw material prices.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, described diversified mineral supply as “a form of economic insurance against major supply risks” in a July 16 statement accompanying the agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026. Both governments now treat export and output limits as ongoing tools for managing prices rather than emergency measures. Indonesia links its quota to smelter capacity and oversupply, while Congo pairs its cap with royalties paid up front and a reserve controlled by the regulator.
Producers are adjusting as well, with Glencore holding cobalt back in solution while export regulations evolve. The next markers are Indonesia's approval of its 2027 work plans, for which no date has been announced, and any change to Congo's 96,600-ton cap or the release of reserve volumes. Fourth-quarter price reviews will show whether the quotas begin to lift prices or whether weak battery demand continues to absorb the cuts.
Source: environmentenergyleader.com