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Fed Is Not Alone: Major Central Banks Tighten Policy in 2026 as Iran-Related Energy Shock Fuels Inflation Concerns

The Federal Reserve is not the only major central bank to raise interest rates this year. According to a November 4, 2026 analysis from J.P. Morgan Wealth Management's editorial staff, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank have all tightened policy in 2026.

The Bank of England, the Riksbank of Sweden and the Swiss National Bank have held rates steady so far, although some of them may still raise rates before the end of the year. The tightening follows higher energy prices and supply disruptions tied to the conflict in Iran, which have complicated the inflation outlook. Longer-term bond yields have also moved higher as markets reassess how long higher short-term interest rates may remain elevated.

Reuters, cited by J.P. Morgan, described a global rate-hike cycle as central banks confront inflation pressures. The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points on September 16, to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since 2023.

The Fed held rates steady at its October meeting. However, the September Summary of Economic Projections signaled at least one additional quarter-point increase in 2026, as inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target. A hike is widely expected at the December meeting, the last FOMC meeting of 2026.

The ECB raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points in June and again in September, as higher energy prices pushed up its inflation projections. The deposit facility rate rose to 2.50%, the main refinancing operations rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending facility rate to 2.90%. In its September 10 decision, the ECB projected headline inflation of 3% for 2026, as the conflict in the Middle East continues to create inflationary pressure.

The ECB held rates steady in October, but a further hike at its December meeting has not been ruled out. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to around 1.0% in June, continuing its move away from years of exceptionally low rates. In September it increased the rate again to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years, as policymakers sought to limit the risk of inflation exceeding the bank's 2% target.

The BoJ held rates steady in October. According to a CNBC survey cited in the article, the next hike could come in December or January 2027. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its October meeting, a move that was widely expected and marked the first rate hike in over three years.

Prior to the decision, inflation risks had increased amid elevated energy prices and renewed U.S.-Canada trade tensions. The Bank of Canada has said that future rate hikes are not off the table for 2027 as inflation concerns persist. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate four times in 2026, in February, March, May and September, bringing it to 4.60%.

The RBA said inflation had been too high even before the Middle East conflict, while higher fuel and commodity prices added further pressure. According to CommBank economists, cited in the article, another 25-basis-point hike is expected at the RBA's November meeting. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand began raising rates in July, taking its official cash rate to 2.50%, and increased it again to 2.75% in September.

The bank said June-quarter inflation had risen to 4.1%, largely because of higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict, and indicated that rates may need to rise further to return inflation to its 1%–3% target. On October 28 the RBNZ held the official cash rate at 2.75%, although a hike is still considered likely at its December meeting. Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.50% at its September meeting.

The bank said tighter monetary policy was necessary to return inflation to its 2% target within a reasonable period, and that rates would likely need to stay elevated for a time and could be raised further if inflation persists. Its next rate decision is scheduled for November 5. Several central banks remain on watch for possible moves.

The Bank of England, which is the central bank for the entire United Kingdom, held its Bank Rate at 3.75% at its September meeting by a 6–3 vote. The BoE warned that higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated and that future policy would depend on how those pressures spread through the economy. Its next decision is due on November 5, and a 25-basis-point increase to 4.00% is widely expected, according to the article.

The Riksbank held its policy rate at 1.75% at its September 23 meeting but signaled that tighter policy is likely ahead. Stronger economic activity, continued supply shocks, higher energy prices and a weaker currency are expected to put upward pressure on inflation. A hike of 25 basis points to 2.00% could come at the November meeting, depending on whether the outlook remains unchanged.

The Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0% as of September 24. Inflation has risen since June, mostly because of higher energy prices, but the SNB said medium-term inflationary pressure had increased only slightly. Its forecast assumes the policy rate remains at 0% over the forecast horizon, and the bank meets again in December.

For investors, J.P. Morgan's analysis stresses that the market impact of rate changes depends less on the direction of the move than on how it compares with expectations. A widely anticipated increase may have a limited effect if it is already reflected in asset prices.

The underlying reason also matters: rate hikes linked to stronger growth can coincide with rising corporate earnings and equity prices, while an unexpected increase driven by persistent inflation or tighter policy may weigh more heavily on valuations. For bondholders, higher market rates generally mean lower prices for existing fixed-rate bonds, particularly those with longer maturities. This matters most for investors who may need to sell before maturity, while holders of individual bonds until maturity may be less affected by interim price moves, assuming the issuer meets its obligations.

Higher yields can, however, offer more attractive income for new investments. For international equities, rate changes can influence valuations, currencies and sector performance, with the impact again depending on market expectations and what the moves signal about growth and inflation. The article concludes that global rates matter to U.S. investors because financial markets are interconnected, but that markets are forward-looking.

Policy changes that broadly match expectations may produce relatively modest market moves, while surprises to growth, inflation or policy tend to matter more. The Middle East conflict and volatile energy prices remain key variables, alongside domestic inflation, economic growth and fiscal conditions. The views expressed are those of the J.P.

Morgan Wealth Management author and are subject to change without notice.

Source: chase.com

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